UAL to stop furloughing

[UALU30]

Good info!

Andy,

I knew the wild card was the early retirement figure, I'll not that down. Also, obviously that should be a 7500 hour figure, not the 750 misprint in the last post. That is actually also a low ball figure from what I just read on the ALPA website from the latest crystal ball, which placed year on block hours at 1.9 million for 2003 with an 100,000 increase next year. That would be a figure of 8,333 block hour increases a month. Like you, I feel the numbers on retirement are just about bailing water, and that any major influx depends on an increase in flying. I think that we will be in a very good CASM state to keep an equivalent increase in block hours in 2005, so it should generate the same numbers of pilot need.

To be really optimistic, it has taken them about 100-120 numbers to actually get 80 bodies off the list through the furlough. The obvious culprits are LOAs, military and civilian contract. It could be quite surprising to get a call sooner than you think since on the recall they should get the same ratio or higher to get the bodies into TK. I.e.- Off a completely optimistic 80 to 120 ratio, it makes them call back 900 numbers to get 600 guys back into Fifi and the Guppy. Possible? Uh-huh. Plausible? I don't know, we'll see. I don't have anything better to do.

As for the party, that's easy: Shotgun Willie's

God save the ball!

 

[banned username 1]

Hey Guys,

I haven't weighed in in quite awhile. Two things that UAL is famous for is inertia and overreacting. The pendelum in aviation swings and we've seen the results. I think that you'll see recalls that were just as surprising as the amount of furloughs were.

To those out there now, hang in there. I know it's not fun, as I've been there too. Those on the line haven't forgotten about you. A couple of good quarters economically for the country and some solid work by UAL on the BK front (which they've shown that they seem to know what they're doing) and the recalls will happen. If everything works out, I predict better news in late '04.

UAL78

 

[Andy]

AGE 60 NUMBERS - 7-22-03 Seniority List

These were hand computed, so some errors may have occurred. For 2003, I counted everyone who was born in 1943; 2010 everyone born in 1950, etc.

2003 31
2004 134
2005 231
2006 274
2007 276
2008 249
2009 234
2010 187

That's a total of 1616 age 60 retirements based on the latest seniority list. I didn't differentiate those on medical leave.

C5 Guy, on mil leave ... I believe that you're correct about it being 6 yrs (I think that it was 5 yrs 9 mos in C2K, with a later SLOA that increased it to 6). It doesn't matter since you're on Active Duty, but many contingency orders don't count toward the 6 yrs.
I'm still in the reserves; I was a bit late on trying to get back to AD. I currently have ~6200 AD points, so I only need another 1100 or so (3 years' worth). Fortunately, the reserves give me flexibility on how & where I work. Unfortunately, I can't count on it for full time employment (although I've been employed full time thus far). Fortunately, I've got a fairly big nest egg saved to draw on when times get lean.

UALU30, Shotgun Willy's sounds great! My buddies held one (we had three; you can't have just one!) of my bachelor parties there before I got married.

UAL78, good to see you posting! I remember all of the advice that you gave me prior to being hired at UAL in spring '00. Thanks, it was much appreciated.
I've been around the airline industry since I was born, so I've seen several of the boom & bust cycles. I agree with you that recalls will start in '04, but I wouldn't be surprised to see UAL start recalling in late spring.
My guess is that they'll go through two people for each recall (due to military and 2 yr employer committments). I'm betting that they go through 700 numbers to get 350 back on property for '04. This is a complete WAG, but after seeing past economic cycles, it's looking like '04 will be a very good year for the economy.

 

[250scp]

Positive Thinking

Not much to add to the conversation other than I hope UALU30 and Andy's prognostications are in the ballpark. By the time 8 Jan rolls around, I'll have over 2100 furloughees in front of me and the light at the end of the tunnel is very dim. On a positive note, I'll have a military retirement in 4 years and probably stay a couple of years after that just to get someone (anyone) hired behind me.

Keep the faith fellas, we'll eventual toast the ball again.

 

[Andy]

250scp, you may want to read this article:

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3965534

Here's the start of it:
United Airlines' Exit Financing Pact Near
Tue December 9, 2003 05:08 PM ET

(Page 1 of 2)
By Kathy Fieweger
CHICAGO (Reuters) - United Airlines, still hoping for a first-half 2004 emergence from bankruptcy, is close to lining up about $2 billion in exit financing commitments from three institutions, sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

Co-arranging the loan, which would be contingent upon winning a loan guarantee from the federal government, will be Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , sources said.

"The papers are not signed yet, but the details are almost completely agreed," said one source involved in the discussions, who asked not to be identified.



With UAL's current cash position of $2.5 bil and subtracting the ~$750 mil in DIP financing, UAL would have a lot of cash coming out of chap 11. That would allow for much more rapid expansion than I previously envisioned.
I think that there will be a nasty fare war with the LCCs in 2004. I expect to see the majors play hardball with JetBlue, Frontier, AirTran, and Spirit. I don't expect the majors to take on Southwest next year. But we'll have to wait and see what 2005 has in store ...

 

[potrack]

UAL Furloughed 1/15/03

I think when we get recalled we are destined to be on the -300 for a long, long time.

We're gonna end up being one of those old Captains who say, I got 500 hours on the 757 but before that I flew the 737 for 17 years and have 12,000 hours of guppy time!!!

Interesting to see how many guys actually go back. Dudes are finding stuff with better pay, home more, better benefits, better retirement, better quality of life................

 

[banned username 1]

IMHO I don't think that will be the case. Like it or not, the RJs are going to do the work of the 300s. You may be flying with Ted for awhile on 319s and 320s but then will go to the -57s and -67s which will do the lion's share of the work domestically. I expect to do more domestic flying on the 777 as well- and we are starting to see that already as the -400s come back into the mix.

As has been said by the LCC proponents, the concept is here to stay. Expect it to be done with equipment other than the conventional-wisdom 737 models. If you can't make it on price, make it on volume. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 777s on selected markets with a small first-class cabin (if at all) and economy-plus type coach seats.

Your future won't look like your job does today, but then my job today doesn't resemble much of what my past looked like either. I think you'll be flying some diverse equipment and not be stuck very long. Remember the pendelum that I spoke of in my post. As bleak as it may look, it'll swing back. The same as before? No, different in that lots more people are going to use aviation as their means of transport due to low fares. Volume, Baby is what it's all going to be about and once it starts happening, those with the most seats per call-sign into capacity-limited airports are going to make out the best.

************Safe Harbor Statement************
The predictions contained herein are forward-looking and can and will be affected by a variety of factors. Those factors include, but are not limited to: war, famine, pestilence, idiotic airline management, acts of terrorism, Frank Lorenzo, Jim Goodwin, or governmental itervention. They also are the sole opinions of the poster and do not represent the Aviation Interview Board nor those of its readers or participants. Statements contained herein are not based on fact or logic nor are they intended to persuade the reader to agree, disagree or respond with their own equally poorly thought out rebuttals. Factors beyond comprehension can, may, and will affect participants within the aviation transportation system. Participation within said system is entirely voluntary and in doing so will in a not-so-tacit manner, demonstrate the individual's poor decision making skills, complete disregard for their future well-being and that of their dependents as well as a squandering of their talents, not to mention their education that has been paid for at great sacrifice by the participant's family.

 

[potrack]

THANKS

Yeah, you may be right.

I got furloughed off the 757/767 fleet (Brief 2 month stint on the 737). I really enjoyed flying that fleet and look forward to it again.

Airbus........hummmmmmm.....I'd also dig the technology.

 

[banned username 1]

If you like Airbus technology, you might be surprised and excited at the next Airbus model that UAL takes delivery on in the future. And yes, there is a future for you guys at UAL.

 

[UALU30]

Now THAT is a Safe Harbor statement!

Good to see you're trucking along UAL78, and always appreciate your wisdom and contributions on this board. Speaking of how airline jobs change, I remember when even this board was a whole lot different and you did far more than your share to get guys hired at UAL during the gold rush! Hard to believe that is coming up on 5 years now. Like you I think things are going to be much better, and I am no longer concerned that the light at the end of the tunnel is a train.

Fingers crossed, with an A-plan.