AirTran expansion likely, says Hoeksema

[CitationLover]

anyone know the annual increase in passnger traffic at MKE the last three years and what the 1st quarter was this year. could an airline such as airtran increase capacity that much ( as it states) and expect people to show up.

southwest has always been famous for increasing traffic wherever it goes. it helped put Midway out of business at RDU.

Does Airtran have the "Southwest Effect?"

air tran seems to think it can suck away AA/UAL customers from the north suburbs of chicago.

 

[frog_flyer]

I wonder what the MX costs are on that elevator from the exhaust blast....

 

[FlyWolf]

lol, I know, he also forgot to add the airTran rudder trim tab on ship 902ME. Yes we have been flying with an airTran painted trim tab in the rudder of 902 for few month now, wonder if its a sign of things to come

 

[gt1900]

Flywolf.. I undestand what the bod letter said.. My point was that Hoeksema and Skornicka blasted AAI because of 3 loosing quarters and touted the fact that Midex had made money for 2 or 3 quarters. You can only twist the books for so many quarters before you actually have to show real numbers.. The fact that Midex can't forecast a full years GAAP for the entire year should say something. BTW.. Have you seen the forecast for AAI's earning for 2007?? Before the end of 1st quarter they were forecasting a first quarter loss of 7 million... Now (revised on 4/17/07) they are calling for a first quarter profit of 1 million, 2nd quarter 46 million, 3rd quarter 24 million, and 4th quarter 16 million.. They beat 1st quarter earnings by 8 million. Even if they meat earnings for the other 3 quarters, it will be the best yearly earnings AAI has ever seen, around 77 million for the year . 2008 earnings estimates are 111 million.... It is very obvious that Hoeksema and Skornicka could give a chit about stock holders and employees... They care only for their jobs, and thats it.. Hoeksema is reeling trying to trash AAI in anyway he can, the only problem is he is proving his ineptness every time he opens his mouth. I believe AAI can and will get the pax to MKE like they predict, and I truely think Hoeksema knows they can as well...

 

[IdRtherBsailing]

Expansion with RJ's will kill Midex....

Did the RJ's kill Airtran?

 

[FlyWolf]

Actually the $1.30 to 1.50 Midwest is forecasting = 40 Millions in profit for 2007 (if they don't lower it anymore)

RJ's, No, it won't kill us, actually we needed 50 seat RJ's for a while now, don't know if you remember we actually ordered few EMB145 and then canceled the order because of our financial situation. The company did the next best thing with Skywest, truly I don't think its a negative thing.

Now, they can concentrate on the MD80 replacement and not worry about the 50 seat market for now.

We have a lot of smaller markets that doesn't support a 717, Airtran didn't like the RJ and that doesn't mean the RJ will be a bad thing for Midwest, just way too many variables between the two airlines here.

 

[gt1900]

All you have to do is look no further than Horizon Airlines.. When they were researching the replacement of the F28 they looked at 50 seat RJ's.. Horizon said the 50 seat RJ doesn't make any sense because you can't make any money with it because the operating costs were so high, thus the reason they bought 70 seat RJ's. Even now, Horizon basically says the 70 seat RJ is a break even airplane and they make their money with the Q400.. You guys can say what you want, but Midex needs RJ's like SWA "needs" RJ's.. Airtran tried it, and it didn't work.. But Hoeksema may know something that nobody else does..

 

[Citrusflyer]

Did the RJ's kill Airtran?

No...we cut them loose long before they could!

 

[CitationLover]

All you have to do is look no further than Horizon Airlines.. When they were researching the replacement of the F28 they looked at 50 seat RJ's.. Horizon said the 50 seat RJ doesn't make any sense because you can't make any money with it because the operating costs were so high, thus the reason they bought 70 seat RJ's. Even now, Horizon basically says the 70 seat RJ is a break even airplane and they make their money with the Q400.. You guys can say what you want, but Midex needs RJ's like SWA "needs" RJ's.. Airtran tried it, and it didn't work.. But Hoeksema may know something that nobody else does..

100% of horizon's RPM's are from RJ's and turboprops.

from midwest's latest 10K (in '000's):

Midwest Airlines RPM - 3,827,111
times 19/18 (again conservative as this factor assumes 717 capacity is the same as an MD80) for 2 MD80 growth = 4,039,728

Skyway's RPM - 259,283
times 350% for a conservative estimate* for Skywest = 907,491

* should be 1250 (25x50) / 504 (32x11 + 19x8) but 1900's will be leaving soon

thus Midwest's RPM's are only 18.3% generated from RJ's including Skywest (around the same percentages as United and Delta).

This does not also include the real possibility of Midwest EXPANDING capacity by 13.6% on their 717 fleet (going to 100 seats instead of 88) without adding an airplane, which would further boost Midwest Airline's RPM's by 10%.

I have been trying to get a copy of the Midwest contract, but have not been successful. What does it say regarding scope of Midwest Airlines flying? That would be what would concern me.

 

[FlyWolf]

Citation, if you live in MKE just stop by the ALPA office on Howell, Miss T will be more than happy to give you a copy.