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AirTran expansion likely, says Hoeksema

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FlyWolf

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AirTran expansion likely, says Hoeksema

But suitor's plans for Midwest aren't sustainable, he says

By AVRUM D. LANK
[email protected]

Posted: April 18, 2007

AirTran Holdings Inc. will keep its promise to expand service in Milwaukee if it is successful in its hostile takeover bid for Midwest Air Group Inc., Midwest Chairman Timothy E. Hoeksema conceded Tuesday.
But the carrier based in Orlando, Fla., will find that the increase is not sustainable, he added in a talk to about 200 at an Economic Forum sponsored by the Milwaukee Jewish Federation at the Jewish Home and Care Center. In an interview after the speech, Hoeksema declined to say how long it would take for the strategy to fail.
AirTran has laid out specific plans for increasing service in Milwaukee should its offer succeed. Among other things, the company plans to have 215 daily departures from Milwaukee by 2009, which it says is a 34% increase from Midwest's existing schedule.
AirTran says that by lowering fares, marketing more aggressively in northern Illinois and increasing connection possibilities at Milwaukee's Mitchell International Airport, it will generate the traffic needed to make its plans work.
Included in those plans is doing away with Midwest's two-across seating and adding more seats per flight.
Hoeksema said, however, that "good customer service" is an important part of running an airline. He also questioned AirTran's increased passenger projections, saying they would require stimulating markets much more than is prudent to expect.
Illinois won't yield much

In particular, Hoeksema said he doubted AirTran could get a lot more passengers from northern Illinois.
"There are not huge opportunities (in Illinois), as other people might think there are," he said. Fare differentials between Mitchell and Chicago airports have closed in recent years, and Hoeksema noted that Midwest already has a lot of frequent fliers from northern Illinois.
Midwest has been pursuing its own expansion plan, which is more modest and more in tune with the Milwaukee market, Hoeksema said.
The Oak Creek-based company is parent of Midwest and Skyway airlines.
Midwest last week rejected as too low AirTran's offer of $9 cash plus 0.5842 of a share of its stock for each share of Midwest. At Tuesday's closing prices, that was worth $15.90, a 12.4% premium over Midwest's closing price of $14.15 a share.
In his speech, Hoeksema reiterated that there is more long-term value in Midwest as a stand-alone entity. In the interview, Hoeksema declined to say what price might be right for Midwest, merely that "$15 isn't it."
Midwest stock was down 20 cents in trading Tuesday. AirTran shares closed at $11.81, down 2 cents.
 
In particular, Hoeksema said he doubted AirTran could get a lot more passengers from northern Illinois.
"There are not huge opportunities (in Illinois), as other people might think there are," he said. Fare differentials between Mitchell and Chicago airports have closed in recent years, and Hoeksema noted that Midwest already has a lot of frequent fliers from northern Illinois.

And I thought Midwest marketing has been targeting northern IL quite aggressively (for Midwest anyway). I've heard the ads on 720, which is a good station for them to advertise on. Guess the train service isn't as big of a hitter as they thought it would be. It just shows that only a few people will come a little ways for the service (arguably just less of a hassle to fly out of MKE), but if they're going to travel for cheap, they won't cross the line. Airtran could very well do better with the latter.
 
I've said it before and I tend to agree with your boss regarding AirTran sustaining the planned growth in MKE and drawing passengers from the northern burbs of Chicago. I hope I'm wrong for both of our carriers sake if this deal does go through..........
 
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Ya, but Hoeksema also seems to think you can expand and make money using 50 seat RJ's.. Something Airtran already tried and proved it doesn't make sense.. Expansion with RJ's will kill Midex.... BTW.. How was the first quarter profit.. Im curious how Hoeksema and Skornicka are going to spin this one, doesn't sound like AAI's business plan is quite as flawed as they want people to believe..
 
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gt1900, here is what they said in the recent BoD letter:

"Midwest expects to report a profitable first quarter on a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) basis. It expects its first quarter loss on a non-GAAP basis to be slightly greater than the loss reported last year on a GAAP basis. Therefore, Midwest now expects its full year 2007 non-GAAP earnings per diluted share to fall in the range of $1.30 to $1.50, which excludes expenses relating to the impact of mark-to-market fuel hedge accounting and costs associated with AirTran's offers. Midwest is unable to provide a forecast of full-year GAAP net earnings at this time"

This is really not a very good news for Midwest at this time, you can't lower the earnings two month after you gave one and specially that early in the year, I think that airTran won a point with shareholders after that revised earnings by Midwest.
 
anyone know the annual increase in passnger traffic at MKE the last three years and what the 1st quarter was this year. could an airline such as airtran increase capacity that much ( as it states) and expect people to show up.

southwest has always been famous for increasing traffic wherever it goes. it helped put Midway out of business at RDU.

Does Airtran have the "Southwest Effect?"
 

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