When will it turn around?

[Race Pilot]

You are right, it is easier to get a job when you already have one. I've been blessed. I interviewed with ATA in June when I was still on stop loss from the AF. I was put in the pool and in July/August I was released and set my retirement date of 1-1-03. In Sep Jet Blue called me with an interview date of 10-2-02 and shortly after that ATA called with a class date of 10-7-02. I got the email from JB two days prior to leaving for ATA indoc that I had made it to Phase 2. So here I am with a job in the AF (on terminal leave), a part-time job with Roush, going to class with ATA, and going through background checks for Jet Blue. I was going nuts. All in all a lot of hard work, research, and yes quite a bit of prayer, have gotten me to this point.

I will say this, the Job Fairs that Air Inc put on didn't hurt either. I met some great people from several airlines there and talking to folks really helped me decide what I wanted to do. If you get a chance to go to one, it's worth it.

Randy, thanks for the congrats! You helped me a great deal as did many other people on this board. Now I just have to help myself learn to fly with a stick on the right side of the cockpit.

 

[PSL]

Opinion on question #1 : 2005 - July we will be seeing the first signs of an industry expansion.

UAL will be smaller by 25%, US Airways will be about the same size it was in 2001 (assuming you count every RJ as an USAirways aircraft). The WO's will be sold to the highest bidder ... probably some low-life like the guy who runs/owns Freedom. DAL will come out of this carnage very well, but will loose more money than they thought possible flying B757s trying to hold off Air Tran, Jet Blue and Southwest.

This three way alliance (NWA,CAL,DAL) will be interesting. That puts AA in a unique position of having to swallow somebody to compete in Asia and Western Europe.

SWA will be challenged, no doubt about it. You can't just ignore the little airline from TX for too much longer, it's reached critical mass. I know my friends at DAL and UAL see us as a real threat.

Personally, I hate this segment of the business cycle. It comes down to survival and we all know there are casualties during harsh recessions.

This is my second recession / depression. I endured the last one (1991-1993) and I can tell you without qualification, this one is much, MUCH worse.

It took me 17 years to reach WN and I thank my good fortune every day I work for a carrier that is stable (if there is such a thing in aviaiton).

Just my 2.5 cents ...

 

[EMB_driver2002]

Yo JetDriven -

I'm just curious, where did you get the photo of managment's contract proposal ?

I about died laughing when I saw that!!




A fellow Mesa guy

 

[jetdriven]

my mesa jacket and some flight bag "supplies"

PM me if you want a copy of it.

later

 

[Race Pilot]

Add a nice large rubber band to the other "supplies" and you're in business!! Not enough flight attendants on those Mesa flights I guess. Did someone say Messa?

 

[EMB_driver2002]

I've always believed that what most people think is a sun on the Mesa logo is actually a representation of a sphincter - but I am sicker than most.

Sorry - didnt mean to hijack the thread here.

Anyone think projected retirements in the next 3- 5 years might shorten the furlough "cycle" ? Remember all the BS about the pilot shortage and so on based on retirements - or is all that out the window now?

 

[thebluto]

Retirements

Supposedly this is the calm before the storm. 2007 is when the retirements really get going and the Baby Boomers all start hitting 60. The trick is to get in and get a seniority # before that hits, so you can cash in on the retirements. Supposedly around 50% of the major pilots are to retire between now and 2015. But, the next 2-3 years are pretty slow for those retirements.

 

[thebluto]

By the way, I got my info about the retirements from Kit Darby and Co. But, if you think about it historically, it makes sense. Who is turning 60 this year? People born in 1943. What was happening that year? War. So, there weren't a lot of people born that year. The war wasn't over until late 1945. And, the troops didn't really get home in big numbers until 1946. It takes time to court, get married and procreate, so Baby Boomers didn't start getting born until late 1946 or early 1947. Therefore, you don't start seeing them reach mandatory retirement age until 2006/2007. Doesn't help right now, but I'll bet in four years, the economy gets better and older pilots start retiring in droves. The future's so bright...

 

[sweptwingz]

It's going to be slow for a while....

When the first officers in my trusty
C-650 are former B-757 (USAir), and
B-727 (Kitty Hawk), and B-737 (Midway)
check airmen, I have a feeling in my gut
that it's gonna be VERY slow for a while.

Right now the best strategy is to "hunker down" with the most stable flying job you can secure and hang on.

By the way, if we have another "9-11
type" aviation type attack, so much of
the public will stop flying that Southwest
and Jet Blue will be running B-737 ETOPS
on international legs.

(I hope I'm wrong)

 

[embdrvr]

I'd consider staying in for the long haul. I have some friends that did it and it gave them a bit more flexibility in their civvie careers. Defined benefit pensions are going by the wayside. I've heard Delta is scrapping theirs which means other majors may do likewise. I'm sure our brothers at UAL will never see the kind of retirement they were promised on the first day of ground school. Southwest, JetBlue, and other upstarts seem to only have 401K and stock options. So much of this is a crap shoot. I have a buddy that got on with Braniff back in the day. He thought he had the world by the balls. We've all watched many airlines fall. Think of Eastern and Pan Am. Another friend had over 10 years @ EAL when he found himself on the street. Look at your friends that went to TWA or Airways. Imagine being unemployed after 15 years with the same outfit. Everyone made a what seemed like a good decision at the time.
Remember it's not what you make, it's what you keep. We all have a consumer tendency to live up to or just beyond our means. The $2400 mortgage payment looks like Mt Everest when you're collecting $323.00 per week on unemployment.
There is some likelihood of ending up at a regional when you get out. We're seeing a lot more military guys these days. The advantage of a regional when you first enter the civilian job market is that it's a great place to break into the PT 121 environment. The pay kinda sucks for the first year or two compared to O-3 or O-4 pay.
Ex-military guys that stay at the regional seem to fall into 2 camps. The ones that started with a regional after 20+ years of service are often pretty content. They find a domicile they like, start getting 3 day trips with weekends off and life is good. The ones that get stuck at a regional involuntarily seem less happy. Noone likes it when a plan doesn't work out and if you were counting on getting to a major and your long term goals revolve around that major airline seat, life at a regional may not be the most pleasant.
Just food for thought. Take it FWIW.