When will it turn around?

[llowwelll]

Here's the $64,000 question: when will the airline industry (and pilot hiring) turn around? I know that any reply given will be an opinion, but it may be valuable to hear some of those opinions. I do have a more-than-academic reason to ask; I'm trying to decide if it'd be in my long-term interest to get out of the active duty now and position myself to be available for any resurgence in hiring in the next 1-3 years or sign on for roughly another four years (waiting for training date+training+3 yr qual commitment) and reevaluate conditions at that time. I'd truly appreciate any insight any of you could provide on this question.

 

[g159av8tor]

Call Kit Darby at 1-900-SCR*WME...For $64,000 he'll give the complete answer.

Tailwinds...

 

[Gulfstream 200]

well, mine is purely a guess...
but you have to be crazy to think there is going to be any hiring in the next year or two....most are still letting people go (DAL UNITED) there are a lot of guys on the street who need to get back and get trained...lots of time there!
Now I surely dont know much about the regional level, sounds like they are doing some hiring now, if thats what you are after!

But to consider hitting the job path right now might be tough....

 

[banned username 2]

My GUESS is it will be at least 5 years before you see any kind of off the street hiring at the majors (except SWA, UPS, FedEx or JetBlue).. Maybe longer...

Thousands on furlough, more to come.. its gonna get worse before it gets better...

Just my $0.02

 

[N1atEcon]

I agree with Falcon CPT. Thousand of furloughs. Two majors in chapter 11. Economy is bad. Fuel went up 3 dollars a barrel last week. Even if we go to war and the economy picks up in a year or two. The lag effect for the airlines to pick up will be several years out. If you can re-up and have a nice pay check do it.

 

[Race Pilot]

The other important question is, "How long have you got in now, how much bonus will they pay you to stay, what airplane will you be moving to if you stay in (assume C-17, meaning glass time), and where will you be stationed and will you like it there? Lots of things I considered years ago when I could get out the first time, and then re-considered the next time, and the next. For me, a twenty year career turned out to be the best choice and since retirement I have been hired by ATA (spent 3 months there) and now Jet Blue. That was a tough decision too but that's why we get paid the bucks I guess. I also was lucky enough to have a part-time 125 job the last year and a half I was on active duty which I still have today and enjoy greatly. Good luck with whatever you decide and feel free to IM me if you have any questions.

Bill

 

[DAL737FO]

Well I put it to you this way. We have 1,060 pilots on furlough at Delta. If we started recalling February 1st 2003 at the extreme recall rate of 50 a month it would take until December 2004 just to recall all of our people. I think you are safe, well except for 23mm fire, putting in your 20 then looking for a job.

Good luck any way you chose,

Former DAL737FO
Now GII/GIII FO

 

[pilotyip]

Reserve Route

Look at getting out, before you get out shop around the reserves and find out where you get a flight slot with lots of ACDU. I know alot of C-130 units are undermanned. You can almost live on your reserve income. It keeps you current and in two-three years when hiring starts up again you can be at the front of the line, I watched this happen in 82 and 92

 

[pilotyip]

Congrats to Race Pilot

Here is lesson for all of you who say there are no jobs out there. Race pilot gets a job a ATA, a career job under anyones definition and then gets hired by the premier carrier out there right now Jet Blue, and he will be sitting Captain in a year. But when you have strong background it is easy to sell yourself.

 

[jetdriven]

ITS EASIER TO GET A JOB IF YOU HAVE A JOB