Mesa

[General Lee]

I wouldn't disagree with those numbers, but I don't think there will be a surplus of pilots for those seats.

New rules have made it tougher to be an airline pilot, now 1500 hours, unless you go to Riddle or UND, where it is very expensive. The Military is churning out fewer pilots, and more drone drivers. The World is short on pilots, not enough in Asia, A320s are being parked for lack of crews. Throw in 15,000 retirements at the big 3 US carriers, and then a few more thousand for the rest of the US LCCs and Cargo carriers, and I think there will be options for almost everyone who wants a shot at something better than a shrinking Regional.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Mercyful Fate]

New rules have made it tougher to be an airline pilot, now 1500 hours, unless you go to Riddle or UND, where it is very expensive. The Military is churning out fewer pilots, and more drone drivers. The World is short on pilots, not enough in Asia, A320s are being parked for lack of crews. Throw in 15,000 retirements at the big 3 US carriers, and then a few more thousand for the rest of the US LCCs and Cargo carriers, and I think there will be options for almost everyone who wants a shot at something better than a shrinking Regional.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Blah blah blah, same ol garbage over and over and over...go outside and get some fresh air.

 

[General Lee]

Blah blah blah, same ol garbage over and over and over...go outside and get some fresh air.

Mercy, you still can't add anything of substance. That......is too bad. Not unexpected, but too bad.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[sinkrate]

Uhhhhh 15,000 retirements scheduled within the next decade for the big 3 legacies alone. Then throw in all of the other airlines like the LCCs. Nope, not a myth, a mathematical certainty.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Canada is the latest country to adopt the ICAO Multi Crew Pilot License. It will happen here eventually. This alone is not a game changer but check your assumptions. The industry is going to go through some gut wrenching fundamental changes in the next ten years. Some of those changes are predictable - some are not. A pilot shortage at the 'big three' is probably not one of them.

 

[Jon Rivoli]

At the first sign of a real pilot shortage mandatory retirement will go away completely. Pass your medical and your PC and keep on flying.

Then the Bernanke bubble busts and all the legacies file Ch. 11 again.

Then an asteroid hits or a solar storm knocks out global electrical grids and the zombies attack.

You just never know.

A pilot hired at SkyWest in 2001 when compared to a pilot hired at United on the same day earned several hundred thousand more over the last decade than the United pilot who was furloughed twice.

To have suggested that SkyWest would be the better financial move in 2001 would have had you locked in the looney bin.

Good luck!

 

[CLARKGRSWOLD]

True-

The airline career is defn a Marathon.. Sometimes not doing anything is the best career move..

 

[SkyNation]

at the first sign of a real pilot shortage mandatory retirement will go away completely. Pass your medical and your pc and keep on flying.

Then the bernanke bubble busts and all the legacies file ch. 11 again.

Then an asteroid hits or a solar storm knocks out global electrical grids and the zombies attack.

You just never know.

A pilot hired at skywest in 2001 when compared to a pilot hired at united on the same day earned several hundred thousand more over the last decade than the united pilot who was furloughed twice.

To have suggested that skywest would be the better financial move in 2001 would have had you locked in the looney bin.

Good luck!

^^^^^church!!!

 

[wms]

Since the majors have been making lots of money and have been sharing the wealth with employees, expanding ammenities and paying vendors more, it seems strange they haven't shared the wealth with the regionals but are continuing the downward pressure on them. I wonder why?

Maybe to expedite the thinning of the herd, or drive value of the regionals down to buy them cheap later, or an attritional way to get rid of 50-seaters. Nonetheless, the regionals that survive will have pricing power eventually, but not very soon unless failures happen quickly.

 

[General Lee]

At the first sign of a real pilot shortage mandatory retirement will go away completely. Pass your medical and your PC and keep on flying.

Then the Bernanke bubble busts and all the legacies file Ch. 11 again.

Then an asteroid hits or a solar storm knocks out global electrical grids and the zombies attack.

You just never know.

A pilot hired at SkyWest in 2001 when compared to a pilot hired at United on the same day earned several hundred thousand more over the last decade than the United pilot who was furloughed twice.

To have suggested that SkyWest would be the better financial move in 2001 would have had you locked in the looney bin.

Good luck!

Incorrect. First off, any major changes will be fought by the Families of the victims of the Colgan crash. They have been very powerful in creating the new fatigue and hiring rules, and anyone in Congress going against them are committing political suicide. They went up against the very powerful Regional Airline association and won. The victim's families beat the powerful lobbyists.

As far as what happened in Canada, their new law states age 70, but at 65 a pilot cannot sit in the left seat. They have to go to a narrowbody right seat or be a cruise officer (no takeoff or landings) on a Widebody. This was told to me by the Air Canada Montreal Capt rep himself. He said not many senior guys there will take that deal. It preserves upgrades, but slows down hiring. Do you have any idea how that would be handled inside a legacy? Who would figure that out?

Nah, the Regionals will shrink and mainlines will fly smaller mainline jets (717s and 319s) to cities that have seen more frequency with RJs, that will be leaving due to lack of crews. Instead of 5 daily RJ flights, mainline will return with 2-3 717s or A319s.

Throw out your apps people. Go for a legacy or big cargo first, then LCC. Good luck.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

True-

The airline career is defn a Marathon.. Sometimes not doing anything is the best career move..

What??? Or, you can see the signs and act on them. I know a guy who turned down the flow up at Delta from Mesaba a few years ago. No interview, Medical, or psych exam, just a class date. He was in his early 40s with a few kids and made a pretty good wage. Then, Messaba merged with PNCL and Colgan, and then went BK and got large pay cuts. Not a good move. Getting on early in a huge hiring wave is everything. Better QOL sooner, more variety in planes which can affect salary in a good way, etc.

Hanging out and not doing anything may NOT be a good idea this time. Read the signs, listen to the CEOs, look at the lack of pilots coming in behind, and look at the new fatigue and hiring rules. Gas prices are still too high for 50 seaters, and they won't all be replaced by 76 seaters. Good luck.



Bye Bye---General Lee