A-V-8
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2006
- Posts
- 355
I posted this in a previous thread on this subject matter.
I’ll throw in my one cent worth. I can’t afford two cents as an F.O. at Mesa. The baby boomers are starting to retire. They represent well over half of the current legacy pilots. I have a book that I got at a Kit Darby seminar back in 2008 when he was traveling around doing the seminar thing. Half of the current major airline pilots will reach 65 by 2018. That is a lot of #s. When the attrition starts again in 2013 the flood gates will open again. It had already started back in 2008 and 6 regionals were hiring pilots with multi commercials. Mesa, Eagle, Great Lakes, Pinnacle, and two more that I don’t remember. They had lowered the standards as low as they could be lowered. When the attrition starts again regional types will move on to majors or jobs being vacated by furloughed pilots and the regionals will start to hire. If you think we have problems now wait until some guy who has been flying laps in a 172 for 5 or 6 years finally gets on with a regional. He will work practically for free if he has to just to move a step up. High time instructors salivating over a job on a jet will be our worst nightmare. They will believe the same things that we all did at some point. Go to a regional and FedEx will be begging you to work for them a year or so later. Your mail box will fill up with offers from Majors as soon as you meet their minimums. When the attrition starts it will be the tip of the iceberg for our problems. Of course Karma will come full circle. Those high time instructors are teaching mostly foreign students right now. Not a lot of guys to fill their slots as instructors right now. The high time instructors will move on and then the fun will begin. I estimate around Dec 2014. That is when the attrition at majors is roughly equal to the # of furloughed guys. The well will run dry. It will no longer take a few months for the market to produce a 121 pilot. It will take around 2 years. Also Sally Mae will not finance ratings. More folks are unable to pay for pilot ratings for their kids due to the recession and it will be almost impossible to get financing. Raise the pay LOL. You can offer them the moon. There will be not pilots. No pilots for years. The regionals will have a shortage of labor. As far as the majors go: Sky Bus offered 65K for a line check airman on the Bus and there was a line out the door to work there. No shortage at the majors level because regional guys will always line up when they start accepting resumes. The regional’s that don’t pay well or treat people fairly will not be able to retain pilots. They will be toast. The higher labor cost at the regional pilot level will result in majors consolidating say 2 CRJ 700 turns into one Airbus turn. Regional’s will become smaller and fly fewer passengers.
I’ll throw in my one cent worth. I can’t afford two cents as an F.O. at Mesa. The baby boomers are starting to retire. They represent well over half of the current legacy pilots. I have a book that I got at a Kit Darby seminar back in 2008 when he was traveling around doing the seminar thing. Half of the current major airline pilots will reach 65 by 2018. That is a lot of #s. When the attrition starts again in 2013 the flood gates will open again. It had already started back in 2008 and 6 regionals were hiring pilots with multi commercials. Mesa, Eagle, Great Lakes, Pinnacle, and two more that I don’t remember. They had lowered the standards as low as they could be lowered. When the attrition starts again regional types will move on to majors or jobs being vacated by furloughed pilots and the regionals will start to hire. If you think we have problems now wait until some guy who has been flying laps in a 172 for 5 or 6 years finally gets on with a regional. He will work practically for free if he has to just to move a step up. High time instructors salivating over a job on a jet will be our worst nightmare. They will believe the same things that we all did at some point. Go to a regional and FedEx will be begging you to work for them a year or so later. Your mail box will fill up with offers from Majors as soon as you meet their minimums. When the attrition starts it will be the tip of the iceberg for our problems. Of course Karma will come full circle. Those high time instructors are teaching mostly foreign students right now. Not a lot of guys to fill their slots as instructors right now. The high time instructors will move on and then the fun will begin. I estimate around Dec 2014. That is when the attrition at majors is roughly equal to the # of furloughed guys. The well will run dry. It will no longer take a few months for the market to produce a 121 pilot. It will take around 2 years. Also Sally Mae will not finance ratings. More folks are unable to pay for pilot ratings for their kids due to the recession and it will be almost impossible to get financing. Raise the pay LOL. You can offer them the moon. There will be not pilots. No pilots for years. The regionals will have a shortage of labor. As far as the majors go: Sky Bus offered 65K for a line check airman on the Bus and there was a line out the door to work there. No shortage at the majors level because regional guys will always line up when they start accepting resumes. The regional’s that don’t pay well or treat people fairly will not be able to retain pilots. They will be toast. The higher labor cost at the regional pilot level will result in majors consolidating say 2 CRJ 700 turns into one Airbus turn. Regional’s will become smaller and fly fewer passengers.
