Hello flyi.com (ACA)

[Sniper@YourFeet]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Irrational Exube

Awww man, you got my original text! I even edited my post before your reply was psoted b/c I though it wasn't professional, but man, you grabbed it right off the board so quick, now I look ike a jerk - exposed for who I really am?

If "I's" only routes were IAD-LGA and IAD-BOS, I'd be a little worried. However, the Shuttle doesn't go to RDU, CAE, SAV, JAX, ALB, etc. So I think it should work out just fine.

That's where your busses are gonna' fly to? See, if you send a bus there, then maybe you got something. But if it's just a CRJ - you can paint it and call it whatever you want, but it's still a CRJ. Why fly your CRJ when I could fly a UAX one (I'm betting UA will match fares)?

I haven't seen you comment on AirTran, don't they have Ryan busses flying right now? Has it hurt them?

Nope. I don't think the issue is that your busses are Ryan, but that you only have 4 of them for the first 10 months. How do you fend off UAL, Mesa/UAX, jetBlue, AirTran, US Air, Southwest, and Delta with only 4 NB's? Yeah, you have tons of CRJ's, but that's like having muskets against a fleet of tanks.

I'm out for a bit on this. I don't like how this is turning into a back-and-forth b/t us.

 

[Carl_Everett]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Irrational Exube

That's where your busses are gonna' fly to? See, if you send a bus there, then maybe you got something. But if it's just a CRJ - you can paint it and call it whatever you want, but it's still a CRJ. Why fly your CRJ when I could fly a UAX one (I'm betting UA will match fares)?

Those cities will not be busses(Maybe one or two a day to large markets like RDU). How can UA match a 50-100 dollar fare to every single RJ city? They charge 70% more than that right now and claim UAX still can't make a profit. Plus out of CH. 11, it will be difficult to keep fares low. They need to show profit and cannot afford to price match. UAX RJ cities out of IAD will not/ cannot have the frequency that Independence will. It will be difficult to match ACA's RJ fleet size, as UAX will not have enough aircraft or gate space (at IAD). I am speaking about this in terms of the next two years.

Nope. I don't think the issue is that your busses are Ryan, but that you only have 4 of them for the first 10 months. How do you fend off UAL, Mesa/UAX, jetBlue, AirTran, US Air, Southwest, and Delta with only 4 NB's? Yeah, you have tons of CRJ's, but that's like having muskets against a fleet of tanks.

I'm out for a bit on this. I don't like how this is turning into a back-and-forth b/t us.

The plan will be to start slowly until they start gettting the NB's. ACA is hoping that they can come to an agreement with UAL on a phaseout plan. Maybe like 20 RJ's a month. Who knows on that one.

Take jetBlue, and Southwest out of the equation for now. Management has said they will not be competeing with them. USAIR and UNITED are close to or in CH 11. They will be hard pressed to wage a full scale war right now. We could face stiff competition from Airtran. When jetBlue gets the EMB's in a few years, ACA should start to worry.

Now this is what the CEO said, and don't take it to mean I believe it...Those smaller cities cannot afford 737 type aircraft and keep the frequency that an RJ can. He believes the shorter haul markets compete with departure costs and not CASM. While a 737 could maybe have 2 flights a day to SAV (300 pax), a CRJ could have 6-8 flights a day to SAV (300-400) pax and still be cheaper. I don't know the exact numbers but for comparison's sake lets say that it costs $10,000 for any 737 flight under 1.5 hours. Let's also say it costs $2,000 for any CRJ flight under 1.5 hours. You could run 8 CRJ flights cheaper than 2 737 flights and still carry more passengers. You will also offer a wide range of flight times. Combine that with a hub that allows the same frequency out of IAD to other cities and maybe you have something.

 

[AceCrackshot]

Just as a quick frequency aside...WN builds market share on freq, not necessarily on fares...f.ex., fares on MCI-MDW are basically competitive with UA/AA fares MCI-ORD, WN just does it a bazillion times a day and has been siphoning off pax for about 5 years.
Frequency kills, and can make you competitive with the high end business traveler without service/freq. flyer/fare issues even coming into play. Just my .02.

The only real competition IA will have is WN in BWI, and the RJ will provide feed that WN lacks. WN's feed in BWI for years was USAir express. Time will tell. UA doesn't have an exactly sterling record facing LCC hub assaults. See also, F9 in DEN.