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I think the 100LL market is in for a rude awakening. From all the news I have read in the last few years, 100LL is rapidly becoming a thing of the past. I think you will see 100LL continue to rise in price here (maybe if we secure Iraqs fuel reserves, we will buy a little more time for the Pipers and Cessnas). The national average for 100LL is more than JET A. Something like 1 or 2 refineries in N. America producing it and 1 other worldwide. With plans on ending production around 2010 and maybe having enough reserves for a few years after. There has been no real incentive to find a replacement fuel and the research and development is way behind. Older low compression engines will be able to use autofuel, but the high perf., high compression, turbo-charged engines are going to need the lead or figure out a way to substitute it. I think the diesel engine is promising and probably more so is the development of small turbine engines. The piston aviation market is small compared to the global fuel market. The times they are a changing.sstearns2 said:I don't think there is much of a future for diesel aircraft engines in the US. Jet A is about the same price as 100LL if bought in small amounts. Diesel engines also tend to be heavier than otto cycle engines.
Another thing to think about is that Jet fuel is heavier than 100LL, so one needs to convert gallons/hour to pounds per hour for a good comparison of fuel burn.
The diesel may have a future in Europe where av gas is heavily taxed and Jet fuel is conciderably cheaper.
I think 100LL will be around for a while, but eventually replaced with a fuel compatible with the current otto cycle engines. I also think we will start seeing auto fuel sold at airports in the future.
Scott
sstearns2 said:I don't think 100LL will rise in price much. The price has been very stable for the last 10+ years even as mogas fluctuated wildly. Jet fuel is cheaper that avgas when purchased in large quantites. I 'pay' about $1.10/gallon to put 250 gallons onto a brasilia at LAX, but if I want 30 gallons for my Lancair in Camarillo I'll pay $2.50 gallon and I can get 100LL for $1.99/gallon at the self serve pump. Ever seen a self serve JetA pump? I've seen only one, so your stuck paying a premium for a line guy to pump your gas. Also most of the smaller airports don't have Jet A, so you may be forced to fly out of your way to get fuel.
Scott