Comair Future Uncertain ... Again

[JECKEL]

New news on Comair's plight.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...rtain-as-delta-shuffles-regional-lift-373112/

 

[CRJ puppy]

Same author that 10 days ago wrote that Comair was going to get 36 E-175's.

If you write enough articles, each with a different prediction, eventually one of them might be right...

Don't you just love the press?

 

[JustaNumber]

I agree, this article is pure speculation. BUT...it is interesting how they came up with their speculation.

For those who didn't read the article:
This was the first time I have seen a hard number of how many 200's are going away--218. The article quotes Delta ALPA's "Negotiator's Notepad," a semi-official publication put out by ALPA to explain the practical ramifications of the TA to the Delta pilots. This negotiator's notepad explains that 70 76-seaters will be awarded to DCI carriers on a 2 for 1 basis.

The only problem is, the math for that doesn't work. 218/70=3.1 to 1. Clearly not a 2:1 ratio. BUT if you add in Comair's 28 700s and 900s to the 70 new jets, you get 98 airplanes to be awarded, for a ratio of 218/98=2.2 to 1. Just an interesting speculation.

This quote was also interesting: "The airline did not comment on its plans for Comair but says that it is too early to discuss fleet plans until after its pilots vote on the tentative agreement." They could have just said it is too early to discuss fleet plans, and left it at that, but they apparently slipped and implied that they already have some fleet plans to announce, but they have to wait until the TA is signed to make the announcement.

 

[SpaceShipEarth]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdWBjqUGgvU

 

[CRJ puppy]

I agree, this article is pure speculation. BUT...it is interesting how they came up with their speculation.

For those who didn't read the article:
This was the first time I have seen a hard number of how many 200's are going away--218. The article quotes Delta ALPA's "Negotiator's Notepad," a semi-official publication put out by ALPA to explain the practical ramifications of the TA to the Delta pilots. This negotiator's notepad explains that 70 76-seaters will be awarded to DCI carriers on a 2 for 1 basis.

The only problem is, the math for that doesn't work. 218/70=3.1 to 1. Clearly not a 2:1 ratio. BUT if you add in Comair's 28 700s and 900s to the 70 new jets, you get 98 airplanes to be awarded, for a ratio of 218/98=2.2 to 1. Just an interesting speculation.

This quote was also interesting: "The airline did not comment on its plans for Comair but says that it is too early to discuss fleet plans until after its pilots vote on the tentative agreement." They could have just said it is too early to discuss fleet plans, and left it at that, but they apparently slipped and implied that they already have some fleet plans to announce, but they have to wait until the TA is signed to make the announcement.

The 218 is an accurate number IF the TA is passed.

However, remember, this is over the course of 3 years as the 717's come onto the property.

During that 3 year period, the Comair 200's come off lease and will be returned regardless. This has already been announced by management and confirmed by the union. Also during this time frame, the Chataqua E145's come off lease. So that is 40 fifty seaters going away during that time frame without any "swapping" of 76 seaters for 50's. Additionally, look at the age of some of (former) ASA's and Skywest's 200's (found on the deltanet website). A handful (12+) will be almost 20 yrs old after the next 3 yrs are up and will most likely be parked without trades also as their leases come up. So there should be approxiamately 50(+/-) 50's parked during the course of the next 3 yrs at DCI whether any swapping occurs or not...which changes the math completely.

In summary, I think it is unlikely that this entire deal hinges on the demise of Comair (not that I profess that all is "rosey" at Comair).

As was said before, this is the SAME author that wrote just 12 days ago that Comair would soon be getting 36 E-175's...he is clearly just speculating without any good "insider" information.

However, you must admire his ability to write pure fiction and get paid as though it were "news"!!

:laugh:

 

[CRJ puppy]

Oh, and I almost forgot:

The author also has forgotten about the 16 Pinnacle 900's that begin to come off line on Jan 2013.

These will be available for Delta to reassign to another DCI carrier and will also be awarded on a 2 for 1 trade (at least) as has been done before. (recall that Skywest and "ASA" already have clauses in their DCI contracts that permit 2 for 1 trades).

So in reality, over the next 3 yrs, there will be 86 900's to be swapped (assuming that the Delta TA passes).

So, 86x2 (2 for 1 swap)=172 plus the 50 (+/-, 50's already going away) is greater than or equal to 218.

218 50 seater's removed over 3 years is then easily achieved without the complete disemboweling of Comair.

 

[i fly boxes]

pinnacle owns those 16 900's so they would have to be returned to bombardier and then leased or purchased by another carrier. Delta could purchase them and then keep them at pinnacle.

 

[amcnd]

How is GoJets going to do a 2-1 swap?? They have no 200's ... But i bet they get some of the 900's do to keeping the "rate rese"t low for Delta.....

 

[180ToTheMarker]

Same author that 10 days ago wrote that Comair was going to get 36 E-175's.

If you write enough articles, each with a different prediction, eventually one of them might be right...

Don't you just love the press?

Shotgun theory...

 

[CRJ puppy]

pinnacle owns those 16 900's so they would have to be returned to bombardier and then leased or purchased by another carrier. Delta could purchase them and then keep them at pinnacle.

No. Pinnacle does not "own" them. The EDC of Canada owns them and that is precisely why during the bankruptcy they are being returned to them. Pinnacle is walking away from the leases. When you lease something, you don't "own" it!

Before Pinnacle was responsible for the leases, Delta paid the leases and the planes were on Delta's 10-k paperwork (ie, part of Delta's debt). This is because many of them were originally to go to Comair. Trust me. Since these are 16 of the 900's currently allowed by mainline scope, these planes WILL find another home in the DCI system...and not at Pinnacle. If they were to stay at Pinnacle, the leases would just be renegotiated as were Comair's leases during their bankruptcy.

The only way these 900s will be going back to Pinnacle is if they are swapped for some of the 200's leases.