Career progression at Delta

[jke406]

unbelievable.

In my limited time as a member of this forum, I've always been amazed at how many idiots are ready to p!ss in someone's cornflakes just for the sake of doing so. If folks at Delta, or Southwest, or wherever, are happy with what they're doing, and optimistic about it, why are so many @$$clowns so keen on knocking them down?

 

[~~~^~~~]

jke -

Your point is well taken.

However most surprises in aviation are not good news. Very few careers have worked out as planned for anyone who participates here. Experience has made us cynics.

None the less, I think 07 hires will be in the A position in the next three years, especially if the rumored MD90's show up, or a 100 seat jet is ever operated by Delta (as opposed to operated outside of Delta with 76 seats in it).

The A position on the 737, 757, or 767, is probably a ten year wait.

 

[Heavy Set]

Had a Delta guy on the jumpseat the other day. He said there are only 500 or so above the age of 50. Almost no attrition for 15 years pending age 65. Delta would need a lot of new planes(not replacement) to upgrade anyone hired this year in the next 10 years.

Have you heard of any that they are parking? The MD88s will need replacing next, but that will be 5 years from now thanks to the lower lease rates. Sounds like most of the planes that are coming are a plus, not a minus.

 

[On Your Six]

I agree - looks like Delta won't be parking many airplanes in the near future. All incoming airplanes will be incremental for at least the short-to-medium term. And who knows, if E190s or 737-600s are added for the 100-seat range, you may see even more incremental airplanes for new pilots.

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

In my limited time as a member of this forum, I've always been amazed at how many idiots are ready to p!ss in someone's cornflakes just for the sake of doing so. If folks at Delta, or Southwest, or wherever, are happy with what they're doing, and optimistic about it, why are so many @$$clowns so keen on knocking them down?

Well since you are in the mood for namecalling, THIS idiot A$$clown (me) was pointing out that what was being posted was not mathematically possible....not stomping on dreams, not telling a bedtime story, just the truth......if the guy wants to be optimistic, be my guest, just don't post crazy talk......about 28 more planes are coming (not including md-90 rumors) and each 777 gets 32 movements and each narrow body gets 18 movements.......with hardly any retirements over the next 8 years, still leaves Skippy in the bottom quarter at best........

 

[cezzna]

Back to the subject at hand. Stability in any flying job is questionable at best. I would say the safest bets for the next 25 years would be corporate or netjets. The richest people will keep flying no matter what.

 

[Sedona16]

Well since you are in the mood for namecalling, THIS idiot A$$clown (me) was pointing out that what was being posted was not mathematically possible....not stomping on dreams, not telling a bedtime story, just the truth......if the guy wants to be optimistic, be my guest, just don't post crazy talk......about 28 more planes are coming (not including md-90 rumors) and each 777 gets 32 movements and each narrow body gets 18 movements.......with hardly any retirements over the next 8 years, still leaves Skippy in the bottom quarter at best........

And you seem to be missing the point. The aircraft and base the aforementioned upgrades were referring to is MD88 in NYC. Nobody wants to live there and nobody wants to commute with heavy loads that have been occurring. You dont have to be MR 50.1 percentile to upgrade in NYC on the 88. I think thats what is being said. Of course company wide we wont see 757 captains in the bottom quarter percentile. Take a deep breath and let it go.

 

[PCL_128]

Well since you are in the mood for namecalling, THIS idiot A$$clown (me) was pointing out that what was being posted was not mathematically possible....not stomping on dreams, not telling a bedtime story, just the truth......if the guy wants to be optimistic, be my guest, just don't post crazy talk......about 28 more planes are coming (not including md-90 rumors) and each 777 gets 32 movements and each narrow body gets 18 movements.......with hardly any retirements over the next 8 years, still leaves Skippy in the bottom quarter at best........

Lumberg, I see what you're saying, but it doesn't just come down to the math. Look at CAL. The simple mathematics never would have predicted upgrades in 1.5 years, but they've just had a vacancy (or AE, whatever you want to call it) that saw the most junior EWR 737 CA go to a 2005 hire. The math doesn't make sense, but the more senior guys just aren't bidding for it. It's certainly possible that the same thing won't happen at DAL, but it's also possible that it will.

 

[stlflyguy]

These are exactly my fears about Delta. With the huge flush (what was the saying? "Don't be a chump, take the lump") it leads me to believe that there really isn't going to be much in the way of retirement attrition in the DAL ranks. That leaves expansion and honestly, that means I have to rely on "the company." Sorry, between AA, and AE, "the company" doesn't usually come through for me.

Forgive me if I feel a bit guarded about this decision. Perhaps it's "battered pilot syndrome."

stlflyguy

 

[acarpe3448]

Nov 99 hires will be upgrading here in a few months. More like 8 years right now. That is about as TRUE as you get with the latest AE. With the international growth we have planned, it can only go down and when it goes about 2 more years down it will hit the 07 hires. IF the economy nosedives then that will change things, but IF it doesn't then we will have upgrades that go very junior just like CAL is experiencing. Try not to be so positive there LUMBERG. I don't really see what I've posted as steaming piles of crap. Just throwing out that a Captain says it will be 15 years when it is currently 8 years with lots of growth seems more like a steaming pile of crap to me if someone is trying to make a choice on a career move. It isn't that far from the Nov 99 hires to the 07 hires if you look at the list. And when we bridge that gap upgrade time will jump up by 6 years.

Where are you getting this information? I think your way off there guy! I am in my 8th year and I am not close to an upgrade! Now if you consider 88F/O to 767ER F/O your upgrade, then they are fast and furious! I think on this last AE rfesult the lowest Captain award was around 4500 or so! As far as checking the computer and seeing that only 15 people seniorto you have a bid for NYC 88Capt, that is misleading! Hundreds and hundreds more may not have anything in the computer, they wait for the AE to comeout, then they take a look at it and then put their bid preference in! Sorry but thats what is happening here!