When to replace aircraft?

[Bleeds On]

What metric do you guys use when determining the length of time you're willing to operate the aircraft you fly? Currently we operate an aircraft that's 30 years old with 9,000TT and it's struggling somewhat through an inspection. Increasingly expensive would best explain it. In another 1,000 hours it's due for a major airframe inspection that I'm inclined to believe will quickly turn into a nightmare because most airframe parts/tools are long since mothballed. Not necessarily impossible to repair, but will make for significant down time.
Anyone have any experience or horror stories with old aircraft? I'm trying to educate the owners best I can about the pitfalls of such.

 

[G100driver]

When you cancel more flights than you make ... that is why we got rid of our Astra!

 

[Gulfstream 200]

Whenever your boss wants.

There is no logical equation for this - from a small one plane operation to a Fortune 10 company with a big fleet...Its simply more pilot busy work attempting to figure it out.

Some places buy new as soon as the warranty runs out, others buy used junk, repaint it in company colors and run it for years...each will tell you their reason is the right reason.

That being said - operating a 9000TT airplane? - yeah, you are ready for a new one. lol..

(all kidding aside, I'm all for that if it runs good and does the legs you want, leave it be...but those decisions usually are not mine)

 

[ultrarunner]

It's not the hours on the airframe. Air-carriers put 4000 hour a year on an airframe right from delivery. No big deal. If the bird is doing the job, press-on.

 

[stupidpilot]

It's not the hours it's the cycles that beats up the aircraft. If the cycles are low then you can keep going.

 

[Bleeds On]

It's not the hours it's the cycles that beats up the aircraft. If the cycles are low then you can keep going.

I realize that and she has about 6,000 cycles. I think the biggest issue is simply the age of the plane. Parts are harder to come by and gremlins are getting more frequent and harder to catch. She's great otherwise, when she works.

 

[stupidpilot]

Then I guess you have to put together the bills from the cost of having to repair and maintain the old aircraft, plus the amount of downtime, and then contrast it with the DOC of a newer aircraft. Once you have the figures in hand you'd have a pretty solid case on whether to go with a new aircraft or keep fixing the old one.

 

[spxdriver]

I realize that and she has about 6,000 cycles. I think the biggest issue is simply the age of the plane. Parts are harder to come by and gremlins are getting more frequent and harder to catch. She's great otherwise, when she works.

I know of an operator with a 1968 Falcon 20 that has 18,000 hrs and 12,000 cycles.. The owner wants to keep operating the airplane, the reliability is good, and so they continue to fly it.

As G200 said, the time to upgrade is when the owner wants to, not when the pilots want the owner to.

 

[ksu_aviator]

When the actual operating costs of your aircraft exceed the estimated operating costs of a newer, similar aircraft by 25%.

 

[BoilerUP]

LOTS of variables that only the HMFIC and his/her accountant can ultimately decide on...

DOC differences
Downtime/loss of use on existing airframe
Residual value of existing airframe
Cost of capital on a new (newer used) airframe
Depreciation 'needs'

For my boss, the decision to buy a factory new replacement came about a year before our old airplane was 100% depreciated, because delivery was running about 20-24 months out.