SWA pilot future very bright..

[MLBWINGBORN]

Hey guys and gals..

One of the things that some folks are always asking about is what type of growth plans they might expect at SWA..

Just to give you an idea where things might be going in say the next nine years...

Projected aircraft deliveries and percentage of pilot growth..

Year- aircraft deliveries- percentage of pilot growth
03- 11- 2.9%
04- 19- 4.9%
05- 36- 8.9%
06- 38- 8.6%
07- 34- 7.1%
08- 31- 6.0%
09- 54- 9.9%
10- 54- 9.0%
11- 54- 8.3%
12- 54- 7.6%

Total number of aircraft/pilots 760/8107 by late 2012..

These numbers are based upon 10.67 pilots per aircraft..

In the past, SWA has taken MORE aircraft per year than forecast.

As always these numbers are not in any way an indication of hiring or growth nor are they supported by SWA..

This is my own WAG based on what stuff i can read in various company documents and web sights..

The future is so brite you gotta wear shades...

Mike

 

[cgmason1]

Mike
I was in DAL in Mid April and got to meet LL and the rest of the SWA People Dept-and according to my rusty memory-I believe she said they were looking to double the pilot force by 2012...so if there are approx 4,000 pilots now and 8,000 by 2012-that would be right in line with your forecast.

Nice to see someone is growing and hiring--hope it continues.

Fly Safe
Chuck

 

[RJones]

What about that .67 person, he/she is going to be a bit unhealthy.

 

[StopNTSing]

Perhaps one of the best long-term growth indicators is the training center plans. If I'm not mistaken, we have about ten (that's one-zero) more simulators on order from CAE. Add that to the six we now use (okay, seven if you include the -200) to train 4000 pilots and, well, you do the math.

BTW, 10000 pilots by 2012 is the number I frequently hear out on the line from people "in the know."

 

[Pig]

MLBWINGBORN,

I've heard these projections before but I'm wondering where they come from. A buddy showed me the SWAPA website part that has aircraft firm orders, options, and "purchase rights" (what's a purchase right as opposed to an option? anyone know?) along with -200 retirements over the next 3 years. The numbers of firm orders aren't quite as high as your numbers. Do they usually excecise most of their options too? I hope your numbers are right but I don't want to get my hopes up knowing how conservatively SWA is with growth plans historically.

 

[thebluto]

.67

RJones: IMHO, "he/she's" usually are a little unhealthy. ("not that there's anything wrong with that...")

 

[chase]

Info on aircraft purchases, options, etc

This is clipped from a post I made earlier. The numbers can be found within the 10K postings of the company from the Jan '03 report for the 4 th quarter. "Rights" to purchase are converted to options or directly to firm orders. It is a long term estimate but in the past SWA has been fairly accurate with their forecasting of taking new aircraft. Hope these numbers give you some comfort in MLBWINGBORN's post.

___________

SWA has big expansion plans for the next 7 years. Are you aware that SWA has 100 firm orders for '04 - '08? It has options for over 209 aircraft through '10? See chart below from 10K filings in Dec '02. This has been updated in the May '03 10K filing when 2 aircraft have moved from the option column to the firm order column. Dec '02 SWA 10K filing

YR ---- Firm Order Options Purchase Rights

2003 ----17 --------0-------- 0
2004 ---23 -------11------- 0
2005 ---24 -------18------- 0
2006 ---22 -------16-------- 0
2007 ---25 ------- 9--------20
08-10 --- 6--------25 (5 per yr)197 (avg 39 per yr)

(> Side note. 15 -200s due to retire in '04, 6 -200s in '05)

SWA retires just under 100 pilots in '04 & will average 125 pilots for the next 6 years, '05 - '10. When one looks at the number of retirements, new aircraft, the projections for more pilots is obvious. While '04 numbers will be proportionally smaller than later years the increase in aircraft & pilot retirements in the out years will see new hires exceed 450 routinely & possibly even exceed 700 in one of the out years.

_______

Good luck & keep the faith.

 

[General Lee]

And, you get to fly naked! What a deal! You double the size of your fleet, and get to strip down. No, I am just joking. I think it is great that you are expanding (figuratively---not litteraly---naked). No, seriously, I think expansion is just great---(ask your flight attendants). No, but really now, seriously---that's great for your pilots.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Dennis Miller]

Tell anyone that a crew got caught flying naked and 4 out of 5 would guess Southwest. Not picking on your Deltoid boys General but by the time they undid their Double-Breasted undies, the flight would have landed. Some of those guys are stiffer than John Holmes' unit just before the money shot.

 

[tredding@swa]

Greetings from DAL.....

UNREAL.....

That's the best I can do to explain what this place is like. ALL of the waiting, tredding, floating, etc. was worth every day!!

Can't wait to get to OAK or where ever they need us!!!! What an AWEsome place to be a part of!!!

See you all soon - Tred

The Kool-Aid even tastes good!!