Pilot Shortage affecting the Majors

[waveflyer]

Nice quote, but I came from nothing but good a good parent

 

[IBNAV8R]

General has a point. Why do you think AA/US is so willing to give up slots? Maybe they know those routes are going to be discontinued anyway due to the pilot shortage.

What I will like to see is how they explain that to the Congressman who they told that their city will still be served after the merger. I'm sure with the awesome contract PSA got they will be busting at the seams with apps.

"If you like your air service, you get to keep it."

 

[doh]

"If you like your air service, you get to keep it."

"Period"

 

[bizicmo]

Pilot shortage affecting the majors? Yes instead of hiring 15 interns they will only get 15 interns.

 

[pilotyip]

Nice quote, but I came from nothing but good a good parent

not parents?

 

[waveflyer]

Yeah yip, the other's a deadbeat

"I have had all of the disadvantages required for success."
Larry Ellison

 

[dicko]

The Regionals will be the ones having to also up their pay, which will make them less efficient and could lose contracts.

Bye Bye---General Lee

DALPA just sat idly as RA and Lee Moak signed an agreement that lowered the pay at DAL Regionals - In exchange for an interview. Regional pay is going down.

How do you reconcile that fact, with your fantasy.

 

[General Lee]

DALPA just sat idly as RA and Lee Moak signed an agreement that lowered the pay at DAL Regionals - In exchange for an interview. Regional pay is going down.

How do you reconcile that fact, with your fantasy.

Regionals have 50 seaters that can't make enough revenue to pay for the gas. That isn't Dalpa's fault. The new FARs and fatigue rules mandated by the FAA will get rid of CDO's, make Regionals less efficient, and create higher mins to hire pilots. Again, mandated by the Govt. Dalpa doesn't negotiate directly for the Regionals, but previously had flow up and flow down agreements, which perhaps DL didn't like. They want to hire who they want to hire. That is DL's option. Obviously DL doesn't have a problem yet attracting applicants, and the $68 an hour first year pay beats the others handily. That isn't fantasy.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[krewmeel]

There is a dirty word that is about to become relevant in the next 10 years or so relating to civilian commercial aviation: UAV. This will be the next generation of pilots equivalent to RJs and scope.

I predict that when the pilot shortage becomes very acute, and it begins to affect the majors in a big way, maybe around 2020, then airline management is going to get very interested in extreme automation. It is no secret that pilots are a huge pain in the a$$ of management. We are perceived by them as winey, highly paid, difficult to deal with, difficult to replace, blue collar labor. When the unions start demanding increasingly improved contracts, as they will when the leverage is on their side, then management will start looking for a replacement for human, or at least airborne pilots.

It will start with single pilot aircraft. Boeing has already said that the 787 is convertible to be a single pilot aircraft. The next generation of AC will be OVERTLY designed to be single pilot aircraft. The generation after that will be flown by technicians on the ground (like the Airforce is doing now) and eventually super computers.

You say "people will never fly in a pilotless aircraft". If you are saying this, you are probably over 40. The millennial generation, who will be running our country eventually, grew up with high technology and trust it implicitly. They will have no problem with HAL 9000....if it keeps the ticket prices down.

What is likely to save mid-career major airline pilots like myself (20 years till 65), is that the FAA is a very conservative, 1960's style government bureaucracy that moves at the speed of smell. The ATC system is not going to be able to do "free flight" anytime soon, even though the technology has existed since the 90's. The fact that we still do singleplex two way radio communications is an example of this. The bandwidth this requires is extremely inefficient in the digital age. Also, with regards to single pilot ops., we are averaging a death in the cockpit about once per year. Probably do to the fact most airline pilots are older...and many are obese. This will keep FO's around for awhile longer. All bets are off for the 20 somethings getting on now, however.

Any young guy or gal who shells out $100 grand to "live the dream" right now might have good job security and good wages/benefits for about 15-20 years. After that they had better have a back up plan as they are likely to be rendered obsolete by technology.

Don't believe me? Remember the railroads used to have "firemen" who made sure that the fires were stoked in the steam engines. They were kept on even after diesels took over due to featherbedding by the unions. Eventually, however, the unions could not save them.

I don't mean to pi$$ in anyones Grapenuts, but young people getting involved in this career need to be realistic. Its a lot of money to pay for what is something of an old fashioned job that is likely to be automated out of existence.

 

[bizicmo]

Just hand the passenger the statistics of the global hawk and any concerns of a pilotless aircraft will quickly melt away.