Joe's confident

[atafan]

My opinion.

AirTran is out of this deal. AirTran made CH11 and the bidding war possible and they will be compensated appropriately. Thankyou!

SWA is playing as the spoiler, the question remains, how bad do they want the MDW gates? They have the cash and respect to make it happen if they want to make it happen. SWA is finding out like AirTran that in order to seal the deal they will either have to put up a lot more cash than the gates are worth or plan on dating ATA for a some period of time.

AWA is the only airline that really needs this deal. AWA has been organizing this deal for awhile now and they are much more prepared. We will see more news tommorrow, our unions will release news along with possible TAs in the very near future. AWA, by all accounts, have been extremely cordial and have earned the respect of all ATA employees I have spoken with.

AWA is playing hard, they are lining up the creditors, this is the deal I would put my money on. SWA just doesn't need this deal and is obviously going to dump our body in the river after they have had there way with us.

Business is brutal.

There are other players waiting to make a play. JetBlue is only making news so that the world won't forget them, they can't stand not seeing their name in every airline press release, as always a brilliant PR machine. Other financial institutions have also shown some interest but my money is still on AWA.

The real loser is George Mikelsons. We will all move on but George can't run away from his really bad management style and ungracefull death.

This really is a shame.

And then I may be wrong on every account.

 

[PHXFLYR]

You know Ty, you are one abrasive summummabeach....Let's face it ,Bubba,
I don't care what LCC you fly for , the only one of us that will be a competitive force in the industry once the legacy carriers get ther costs in line will be SWA.
The rest of us will be holding hands on the unemployment line. There is no way
Air Tran can compete with a slimmed down Delta should their restructuring be sucessful. The passenger looking to connect overseas in ATL will chose them over you guys everytime, especially if the price is the same.Same could be said for AWA should MDW become a reality for them .You just watch United kick their a$$ with their flights of ORD. Sure, you carved out a nice niche for yourself,but with all due respect,your outfit, just like all the other Southwest-wannabes out there, is nothing more than a regional airline on steroids.


PHXFLYR

 

[JaX2Mdw4ASaab]

C8 Ops

For what it's worth Chico is bidding for our Jan. pairings this week and it's all geared for the airtran takeover. Feeding new cities out of IND and an airtran package out of MDW.

Cant wait to see how it all really turns out!!!!

CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCYA

 

[CaptSeth]

For what it's worth Chico is bidding for our Jan. pairings this week and it's all geared for the airtran takeover.

You are non-union so the company can dump your schedules as they see fit. ATA Mainline is getting two different bid packages because they do not know which scenario will play out yet.

 

[George Zip]

At our town hall meetings, Parker has been saying that he doesn't know much about the charter business and didn't think it would be part of any ATA offer. Who knows what will be in the offer, if there is an offer.

Even many inside ATA don't know much about charter, and in fact have been force fed a very inaccurate picture of that side of the company. Some ridicule and laugh at the L-1011 -a - saur. This appears to have come from the management team that was brought in to run the place while George retired (the Tague regime).

Once the financial goings got really rough in the last 18 months, George stepped back in (too late) and discovered what many of his people had been trying to tell him and anyone else that would listen : ATA was nearly printing money with the lucrative military charter business while the sked service side was burning through it faster than than they could borrow it. The margins in ad-hoc widebody charter is very, very good, and L-1011's, like DC-10's have certain attributes that make them ideal for the job. Tague and his clan didn't understand that, and now we have 5 remaining L-1011's from the 22 we had a few years ago.

It recently (finally) took a directive straight from George to set up a fully independent division manager for charter (who understood the business and the operation). Only now is the full scale and scope being understood of how badly the crown jewel of profitability within the comapny was basically internally scuttled and sabotaged by those who didn't understand it. It went so far as having resources and funds diverted from charter operations to cover losses elsewhere, and wildly inaccurate info being passed up the line to decision makers (intentionally, it looks).

Granted - the sked service side was very profitable for a short bit, but it was a model set up to be able to do that only in the best of overall economic times. Charter had been profitable through thick and thin. FWIW - I think the sked service was actually a really good product and was only unsuccessful because of a couple of key mgmt blunders - ordering too large of a/c and not realizing how important it was to build a recognizable brand name early on (nice airplane - I love this AirTran place!). The people and guts of it operations below the very top layer were excellent IMHO.

767's are an imperfect, but the least imperfect solution to replace the L-1011's when their inevitable useful lives end. The problem is that any twin engine aircraft short of a 777 (too high fixed cost) can't come close to physically doing what a long range, 3 engine aircraft can in terms of weight, bulk, and lack of ETOPS restrictions. That's why old, low fixed cost L-10's, DC-10's, etc. are solid moneymakers in charter.

One of the most monumentally shortsighted decisions I think I can recall was to not heavy check a group of our L-10's (and then lose the money that could have reversed that decision) because "this new military entanglement won't last more than 6 months to a year".......... I wonder what they think now that Omni and World have added so many new charter widebodies and are still turning away business (2 years later with no end in sight).

Anyway, I could understand a much larger company (AWA) deciding that even if it is wildly profitable on a margin basis, it doesn't strateically fit with the resoursces available to run it. It does require it's own nimble, out-of-the-box management and support resources and that can be difficult to blend with sked service. Make no mistake however - charter saved ATA's bacon many times in the past, and it greatly forestalled the inevitable this time.....and remains the only solidly profitable high margin business in the house. It could be a he** of an opportunity for the right buyer.

Honestly, I just hope something comes out of this that keeps as many of us employed as possible..... and I hope noone is left out to rot, not even us charter pukes.

Win one for the Zipper !

 

[Cactus73]

Her article was long on emotion, short on facts. If that's typical of her "work", then I wouldn't put too much into it.



More crap. According to the financials posted on CBS Marketwatch, AWA had two years with small profits, and two years with huge losses, for a total loss over those years of well over $570 million. See for yourself:

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/financials.asp?symb=awa&siteid=yhoo&dist=mktwqn

AirTran posted a loss of $10 million in the last quarter, after FL had an unprecedented four hurricanes and oil hit $50 a barrel- go figure. It was our first loss in 10 quarters, during which time, we retired over $300 million in debt and doubled our cash postion.

If you think that those two track records or balance sheets are even in the same ballpark, you've been reading too much Holly.

You have yourself a nice one, huh?

Ty Webb,

Besides being one cocky SOB, you discount Holly when most of the airline CEO's in this business subscribe to her service and read what she has to say.
She gave our CEO, Doug Parker, an award last year that he graciously accepted. Her articles are meant to have humor and emotion so pilots and street people such as my self can try to understand this crazy business.

She is usually right too. She predicted the UAL BK before 9/11.

You can go on and on about your beloved Air Tran. I actually think they are a good airline too. I think my airline is good and if it wasn't for fuel prices would show a profit too.

If you read your SEC filing for the last quarter, AAI took tax credits that AWA didn't, making their respective losses about the same. But of course your CBS Market Watch research tells you all of this.


I want the best for the AWA pilots and employees. It's that simple. If that saves the jobs of the majority of the ATA pilots and FA's, I'll sleep even better at night.

What about you?

 

[Ty Webb]

The Holly Lama . . . . . all-knowing. Gunga-galunga

Ty Webb,

Besides being one cocky SOB, you discount Holly when most of the airline CEO's in this business subscribe to her service and read what she has to say.

Pardon me, Sparky, but many of the current airline CEO's couldn't manage a Starbuck's- perhaps they have been buying into her "research", hmmm?

If you want to talk predictions- everyone knew that UAL was headed for BK. The contract was unsustainable- it required a LF in excess of 92% percent even at those heady ticket prices.

Speaking of predictions- I said in this forum 2 years ago that if Leo Mullin continued on his path of losing billions going after "marketshare" that it would result in his getting canned. Did Holly do so as well?

I want the best for the AWA pilots and employees. It's that simple. If that saves the jobs of the majority of the ATA pilots and FA's, I'll sleep even better at night.

What about you?

The ATA deal does not improve things for me personally- it makes them worse. If we were to end up with a MDW 737 base, it would go extremely junior, and then guess who would suddenly have a 2-leg commute to work. No thanks.

As far as I am concerned, the best deal for the ATA employees sounds good, but I am not sure that having their wagon hitched to AWA might not be the best, either. Maybe it'll be an albatross that takes both of you down . . . ask Holly. . . . . the Holly Lama . . . all-knowing . . . . flowing robes . . . .

 

[ATA For Now!]

As far as I am concerned, the best deal for the ATA employees sounds good, but I am not sure that having their wagon hitched to AWA might not be the best, either.

I told myself I was not going to get involved in this web stuff but.....at least AWA is offering JOBS. They realize they have a highly motivated, dependable professional group of aviatiors and support staff available. Even during these times ATA has finished in the top 4 of DOT reporting airlines for on time and we were #1 in Sept.

Not too bad for a bunch of people under the stress they are. It's truly a shame that our management team mismanaged such a great workforce....

WE COULD HAVE BEEN A CONTENDER!

 

[xanderman]

Well as we all know now... It's not going to happen. The ATA/AWA thing anyway. Best of luck to all of you at ATA. I guess I was sorta hoping it would have worked out...

Andy

 

[PHXFLYR]

AWA mgm't has to learn that their "smoke and mirrors,now you see it now you don't " form of offers and financing just ain't gonna cut it in todays marketplace. Cash is king. Period.If they aren't prepared to put up,they should learn to shut up. Watch for them to become an even less significant force in the market place over the next several years as they try to keep up with the likes of an ever-expanding AirTran,SWA and Jet Blue.


PHXFLYR