Future of CAL

[AWACoff]

Just curious what everyone thinks may happen in the next few years at CAL. Are the pensions going to be around...bankruptcy...etc. Is there a limit to how many times an airline can be in bankruptcy? I have heard a LOT of positives. I am just wondering if there might be some negatives down the road. How are they going to compete with the LCCs? Outside of another 9/11, does any of that sound reasonable? Thanks for the responses.

 

[Green]

Just curious what everyone thinks may happen in the next few years at CAL. Are the pensions going to be around...bankruptcy...etc. Is there a limit to how many times an airline can be in bankruptcy? I have heard a LOT of positives. I am just wondering if there might be some negatives down the road. How are they going to compete with the LCCs? Outside of another 9/11, does any of that sound reasonable? Thanks for the responses.

They are going to merge with the new Us Airways.

 

[Captjiggles]

CAL will be Bought buy Gulfstream Int'l Airlines, and will downsize the fleet to just BE1900's. Its a beautiful future!

 

[propjob27]

Are the pensions going to be around

No new pensions are being "issued". I don't think the company can get rid of it's obligation to pay existing pensions w/o declaring bankruptcy.

...bankruptcy

Who knows.

Is there a limit to how many times an airline can be in bankruptcy?

No

I have heard a LOT of positives.

So far so good. We're doing OK right now.

I am just wondering if there might be some negatives down the road.

Yes. The same negatives every single other passenger carrying airline faces.

How are they going to compete with the LCCs?

The same way they've been doing it. I have no idea on the specifics of it, I don't think any pilot does. You'd have to ask someone in management that question, and they won't tell you.

 

[erj-145mech]

CAL will be Bought buy Gulfstream Int'l Airlines, and will downsize the fleet to just BE1900's. Its a beautiful future!

I can picture it now, a 757 that says "Gulfstream Connection" on the side.

 

[FurloughedTwice]

Just curious what everyone thinks may happen in the next few years at CAL. Are the pensions going to be around...bankruptcy...etc. Is there a limit to how many times an airline can be in bankruptcy? I have heard a LOT of positives. I am just wondering if there might be some negatives down the road. How are they going to compete with the LCCs? Outside of another 9/11, does any of that sound reasonable? Thanks for the responses.

It is impossible to say what is going to happen in the future but CAL and AA have avoided bankruptcy (for now) in the toughest environment in aviation history. I'm pretty optimistic for the future of both airlines considering the industry is starting to rebound.

As far as the low cost carriers go... CAL doesn't have the same exposure to the LCC's that a lot of other airlines have because 42% of their flying isn't done by LCC's. They also have a great reputation WORLD WIDE for business travelers who pay top dollar for their tickets.

There are no right decisions in this industry because it can change from year to year but like I said in an earlier post. "When was the last time a Major Airline actually went out of business?" It's been a long time. It's very hard to kill an airline so if you use that reasoning CAL and AA will be around for a long time.

Just my opinion!

 

[V-STALL]

Just curious what everyone thinks may happen in the next few years at CAL. Are the pensions going to be around...bankruptcy...etc. Is there a limit to how many times an airline can be in bankruptcy? I have heard a LOT of positives. I am just wondering if there might be some negatives down the road. How are they going to compete with the LCCs? Outside of another 9/11, does any of that sound reasonable? Thanks for the responses.

The person with the crystal ball may have the answers to this one. No one really knows what the future will hold, especially in aviation. All you can do is put your best foot forward and hope you made the right decision come the day you retire. Good luck :0

 

[Cactus73]

At our last earnings town hall, Doug Parker put up a slide with the airlines with the greatest RASM's in the industry.

CAL led the pack by a significant amount. Doug attributed this to CAL's strong hubs in Newark and Houston along with a significant international revenue advantage.

Now RASM's don't mean much when it costs the company more to fly a passenger per mile than they are bringing in. Subtract out high fuel costs, however, Parker noted that CAL would be making a significant profit.

Interesting to note that LCC (the new US Airways) was second on the RASM list. Unfortunately, the combined entities CASM's are significantly higher than the rest of the industry leaders such as LUV and AAI.

My point, I guess, is that CAL will be a survivor just on their high RASM customer base. They will have access to the captital markets and investors interested in their business plan.

As for BK, it may be an option for them in order to lower their CASM's and take advantage of their RASM advantage. But BK is costly too and it is not always the best option. Look at the billions of dollars Delta and United have been spending on restructuring charges.

Now as for a merger...a hookup with United or Northwest to expand the Pacific could create a full service airline that others would find hard to compete with.

Maybe they are waiting to see what happens at AAA before they talk merger. There was a great article in the AZ Republic yesterday about the labor disaster brewing at the new AAA. Every labor group has an open contract and the Company refuses to talk economic issues with any work group. Our FA's are planning to picket next week. You have seen the verbal altercations on this forum between the furloughed AAA pilots and us AWA guys. That is nothing. There have been fights on the ramp, crews yelling at each other while waiting for van rides, etc...

If Parker can somehow pull this off, then you may see other mergers.

 

[MK82Man]

Cactus73 .... "You have seen the verbal altercations on this forum between the furloughed AAA pilots and us AWA guys. That is nothing. There have been fights on the ramp, crews yelling at each other while waiting for van rides, etc..."

What are you talking about? I've seen spirited discussion (exchange of ideas) on the forum, but hardly call it a verbal altercation and where has there been any fight or yelling at van sites? I've seen nothing from the company or union that says fights or yelling is taking place. Every US crew I've met has been regular folks trying to get through the merger just like us. I've been impressed with US Air Gate agents, rampers, and ground support folks. I continue to look forward to working with them and creating the best possible carrier for the long run. I hope we bring the furloughed dudes back as soon as possible. From what I've seen, we are on a good road to creating a great airline for both groups ...

 

[Green]

You have seen the verbal altercations on this forum between the furloughed AAA pilots and us AWA guys. That is nothing. There have been fights on the ramp, crews yelling at each other while waiting for van rides, etc...

If Parker can somehow pull this off, then you may see other mergers.

I'm with Mk82man on this one. "Fights on the ramp, crews yelling at each other?" Where did you get that info Cactus? I've been doing a lot of PHL, Bos, and RDU trips recently and AAA crews, rampers, gate agents have been nothing but nice. You sound like one of the infamous 8 or 9 guys that got our webboard shut down from spreading half truths and fearmongering. Your intitials aren't HH by any chance are they?