FAA forecasts dwindling student pilot numbers

[clr4theapch]

http://www.aopa.org/training/articles/2010/100315forecast.html

FAA forecasts dwindling student pilot numbers

By Ian J. Twombly
The FAA’s 20-year forecast issued last week predicts a decreasing amount of student pilots in the short-term, followed by very slow growth in the mid- and long-term.
It is estimated that slightly more than 72,000 student pilots were registered with the FAA in 2009, down from almost 81,000 a year before. According to the forecast, the number won’t again reach 2009 levels until 2013; next year is expected to be the worst with the forecast bottoming out at roughly 69,000 student certificates.
The flight training industry has been struggling since Sept. 11, 2001. In fact, student certificates aren’t expected to reach the year 2000’s historical high of more than 93,000 for the entire forecast period.
The one bright spot in the forecast is light sport aircraft pilot certificates, which the FAA expects to increase at a rate of more than 7 percent for the forecast period, and more than 25 percent over the short-term.


Seems the Airlines better start paying better lest they run the well dry of new students down the road... you young guys just starting out will be glad for the age 65 rule then..so will the airlines...

 

[samballs]

72,000 will be more than enough, even if only a third of them move to commercial.

 

[AntiJedi]

Given the cost of rentals alone, the decrease doesn't surprise me. With the cost of rentals going up, and real wages going down---especially for the younger set---the average age of getting the license should be going up as well. Back when I got my Private, $40/hr for a 152 was a lot of money. Now, with a 152 in my area going for $110/hr, only the affluent people in town can afford it, but they most likely already have their ratings.

 

[Metro752]

This is in the wrong section of the message board. THis is the regionals section, not the student pilots/training section. Moderators, please move this junk out of here. Nobody cares about who might train to become a pilot.

 

[beagle pilot]

This is in the wrong section of the message board. THis is the regionals section, not the student pilots/training section. Moderators, please move this junk out of here. Nobody cares about who might train to become a pilot.

Disagreed. The ALPA union magazine printed an article on this problem a couple of years ago since it portends the coming pilot shortage. At the time the main concern was MPL, but the Colgan hearings and legislation forthcoming from it will dampen the efforts to produce "cheap" pilots for the airlines.

Secondly, and more important to current pilots like you and me, are the economic laws of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the lower the demand and, consequently, the lower the wages and quality of life. Cut off or shorten that supply and the demand goes up, creating a better environment for pilots to negotiate a more equitable contract to improve their wages and QOL.

For these reasons, you and I should be very interested in knowing how many pilots are being generated in the pilot factories.

 

[Amish RakeFight]

What percentage of student pilots actually end up with a PP certificate? I bet maybe 1/2 - 2/3 at best.

 

[152SIC]

Disagreed. The ALPA union magazine printed an article on this problem a couple of years ago since it portends the coming pilot shortage. At the time the main concern was MPL, but the Colgan hearings and legislation forthcoming from it will dampen the efforts to produce "cheap" pilots for the airlines.

Secondly, and more important to current pilots like you and me, are the economic laws of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the lower the demand and, consequently, the lower the wages and quality of life. Cut off or shorten that supply and the demand goes up, creating a better environment for pilots to negotiate a more equitable contract to improve their wages and QOL.

For these reasons, you and I should be very interested in knowing how many pilots are being generated in the pilot factories.

Agreed 100%. Good post.

Do these student numbers also include foreign students training in the US for their respective countries?

 

[Amish RakeFight]

All should relish this as a schadenfreude moment.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

What percentage of student pilots actually end up with a PP certificate? I bet maybe 1/2 - 2/3 at best.

A recent study concluded it was somewhere in the neighborhood of 289/864ths

 

[crj567]

Disagreed. The ALPA union magazine printed an article on this problem a couple of years ago since it portends the coming pilot shortage. At the time the main concern was MPL, but the Colgan hearings and legislation forthcoming from it will dampen the efforts to produce "cheap" pilots for the airlines.

Secondly, and more important to current pilots like you and me, are the economic laws of supply and demand. The higher the supply, the lower the demand and, consequently, the lower the wages and quality of life. Cut off or shorten that supply and the demand goes up, creating a better environment for pilots to negotiate a more equitable contract to improve their wages and QOL.

For these reasons, you and I should be very interested in knowing how many pilots are being generated in the pilot factories.

Or generated in Guatemala to replace everyone when Cabotage is legalized.