Economic recovery?

Alaska

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http://www.msnbc.com/news/678990.asp

I think it's still too early to tell. The surge in consumer confidence is probably just because of all the Christmas shopping. If it's stil up in Jan then I think they can start forcasting a recovery for the economy. Opinions anyone?
 

bobbysamd

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Autogas prices

My theory about figuring out where the economic winds are blowing is based on energy prices. Remember last winter how electricity and gas prices skyrocketed? That happened, and the economy was pushed further south (I thought the eoncomy had started to go south the summer of 2000 when stock prices started to fall). So, when energy prices go up, the increase is passed on to the consumer. Somehow, it seems that spikes in energy prices trigger economic slowdowns.

Now, energy prices have gone down and, at least where I live, gas prices have gone down - to .97 for regular in some places, although they've crept up a bit this week. I'd opine that lower fuel prices are a sign of a recovery. Prices go down and people start spending again. Tie this to your MSNBC article and a similar MSNBC piece that appeared several weeks ago. That may be a leap of faith big time, but well worth watching.

Just my .02, all based on inductive reasoning.
 
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FlyinBrian

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Unfortunately, OPEC has decided that they don't like low energy prices, so they voted to curb production to get prices back up where they like them. You'll see the prices rise at the pump as a result. You are right though, in saying that energy prices are tied very closely to the strength of the economy. Every business everywhere must purchase energy. It is a universal cost of production. So for you econ types, an increase in energy prices results in a lower Aggregate supply curve, which drives prices up, and productivity down. (slow economy.)
 

TurboS7

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I hope the economy makes a fast rebound, and all the doom and gloom is gone, and you guys all have airline jobs soon. The reality is that it will be hit and miss,people are starting to travel the problem is that companies now are evaluating whether to maintain the bottom line do they really need to travel. In time we will know. For you guys flying charter or corporate has your business picked up or is it up and down as it usually is????
 

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Shem Malmquist
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OPEC has only limited ability to raise the prices at this point, they depend on non-OPEC countries going along. The Russians would like to increase market share, so will likely take advantage of any significant rate hike by OPEC.
 

Dan CFI/CFII

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Turbo, I'll let you know if I find any...

It looks like I'll be flying up and knocking on doors in a few weeks here after the camp gets a break from the christmas break youth groups...

Dan
 
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