Bad News for Indy

[Tug Driver]

Downgrade hits Independence Air
Stock tumbles 26 percent over viability concerns http://www.marketwatch.com/1.gif By Matt Andrejczak, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 3:07 PM ET Oct. 19, 2004 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Independence Air tumbled more than 26 percent Tuesday over fresh concerns the fledgling low-fare carrier might fail before it succeeds.

UBS downgraded its parent FLYi to "reduce" from "neutral," noting the airline's business plan has not met targets.

UBS warned Independence Air could slide into Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in January when a large aircraft rent payment comes due. Industry analysts peg the semi-annual payment on the 50-seat jets between $60 million to $100 million.

"It's clear to us that FLYi's business plan is not working," UBS analyst Robert Ashcroft wrote in a research note. "We believe the chance of (a) FLYi Ch. 11 is about 65 percent."

Shares of Independence Air (FLYI: news, chart, profile) fell 89 cents to $2.51 in late afternoon trading.


The answer is clear....
Its time to buy Flyi stock!!!

I would almost bet that the author of the above article is on the UAL payroll, trying to incite a riot.

 

[46Driver]

Wonder if it is the same UBS?




Associated Press
Reports: Banks Added to Parmalat Probe
Thursday October 21, 11:19 am ET Four Banks, One Asset Management Company Under Investigation in Parmalat Probe, Reports Say

ROME (AP) -- Prosecutors in Milan have added four banks and an Italian bank's asset management arm to their investigation into the collapse of Italian dairy giant Parmalat, news reports said Thursday.

The prosecutors cited Citigroup Inc., UBS AG, Deutsche Bank AG, Morgan Stanley and Banca Intesa's asset management arm Nextra, the ANSA and Apcom news agencies reported. Judicial officials did not return phone calls seeking confirmation.

The investigators allege possible market rigging, the reports said.

 

[Peleton]

Andy-

First of all UAL offered us(ACA) a deal that ensured our own demise. A 5 year deal with a 3 year faze out clause. They offered us 10 70 seat aircraft, we all know you need 15 of a fleet type to break even using revenue sharing program. The long term program UAL offered us would ensure that ACA would be out of UEX by the end of 2009.

Secondly, why would we steal info from UAL? During our brand training we were told to do everything opposite of the way we did UAL ops. UAL ops did not work, as a Chpt 11 filing has indicated. Our manuals are the complete opposite of what they were under UEX. We hired our own people to research cities and set up destinations, we did not steal from UAL at all.

Thirdly, if you blame FLYI for your problems you need to get help, maybe your new job offers ESP or at the very least somebody you can talk to. The industry has changed and people like you are the reason it is in the state it is right now. Customers only care about one thing, PRICE, everything else is just gravy. PRICE is the king and will everymore be labled as that.

Fourthly, we are presently in version 0.4, we have not even got to version 1.0 yet. You have no idea what will happen, and guess what neither does anybody else, we are all along for the ride.

Lastly, you seem to agree with Ashcroft that we are doomed, remember those are the same analyists that stated we were going to bought by MESA. The same guy that had DAL a buy until last week. The same guy who likes to make predictions based upon half of the information. Running an IJET is not expensive and the differencce i cost between 55 dollars a compared to 40 on oil prices is very small in the grand scheme.

In summary, if we file SO WHAT!! We shed the Velcro Jets and move on a little leaner than before. We offer lower prices that undermind UALs prices and cause even more headaches for your guys. If we survive we still offer a better prodduct at lower prices and cause headaches for your guys. If we go out of buisness a new airline takes our place and they undercut UAL even more out of IAD. My point is that it is a very competitive industry right now and we have an overcapacity problem right now throughout the East Coast, until somebody pulls off 300 jets and destroys them the market will ccontinue to drive down prices for travelers and make it hard for the airlines to survive.

 

[GVFlyer]

I was on the ALPA website today and they were saying that Independence is flying with less than 50% loads and would probably file Chapter 11 in January. What's up with that?

 

[frjmx328]

I wished unemployment on you Andy. Read my posts. Glad your not flying anymore, one less dip**CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** for me to deal with. By the way, I stuck up for the US guys. UAL can eat my **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**, and its nice to be in multiple flt decks daily. Too bad your not Andy.......I'll think of you tomorrow though watching all those beautiful jets take off and land. I almost feel bad for you until you open your mouth. You currently make over 6 figures a year, yet in a previous post you state how you want your job back. Why? Have you not been paying attention? Your either a liar or too f*ucking stupid to realize what you have now compaired to what you stand to lose at the airlines. Get a hobby homeboy, no one misses you.

 

[ChinaClipper]

Ahhhhhh...feel the love!

In all this discussion we forgot to mention the genesis of ACA...its name originated from being the Atlantic Coast Division of......WestAir. They were brought in to fill the void left by the crushing of BOTH AWAC and Presidential, the search was for a "cheaper" alternative. Back when I was stuck @ Mesa, a few misguided ACA guys were giving us crap for being the "undercutters" etc. They looked as if they were in grade school when Presidential and AWAC got the hatchet....and replaced by the "Lower Cost Alternative"......ACA..... What short term memories we seem to have.....BTW FlyI is doomed if they think a walk up fare IAD-ORD for $79 is a good idea for ANYONE! In any case, I hope we all have a job, FlyI has put a major dent in revenue for everyone at a bad time. My current employer, F9, is not looking forward to under cutting from FlyI IAD-DEN. Competition is one thing, suicide by bad investment is quite another....

 

[FutureTEDpilot]

China Clipper,





Excellent post. ACA guys need to think about history and stop blaming UAL for the current woes of Indy. The big problem is Skeen! I guess he aint keeping such a "Skeen eye on things"

I was once a Blueridge driver! Hope it works for you guys, but stop flicking your middle finger at me with my back turned, yes UAL is hurting but why wish ill will on us?

We aint all bad at UAL!

--Ex J41 Jock--

 

[Kohflot]

From the FlyI website:

In December 2002, United went into bankruptcy and tried to force us to change the way we had done business in the past, by offering all of its partners a significantly inferior contract. Some accepted the risks of continuing with a bankrupt major airline. But we had a better plan.

This is the question I've always asked: Did SkyWest really get such an inferior contract too? If it's so bad, how are they still making as much money as they are?

I'm not trying to bash anyone, just curious...

 

[smellthejeta]

From the FlyI website:

In December 2002, United went into bankruptcy and tried to force us to change the way we had done business in the past, by offering all of its partners a significantly inferior contract. Some accepted the risks of continuing with a bankrupt major airline. But we had a better plan.

This is the question I've always asked: Did SkyWest really get such an inferior contract too? If it's so bad, how are they still making as much money as they are?

I'm not trying to bash anyone, just curious...

I'm not sure the exit was for short term reasons, which is why ARW and SkyWest signed their contract. Indy knew that *their* long term viability with that new contract was zilch. Why let United bleed Indy's bank account over a long period of time, leaving them no cash when they finally kick them out in 2009? Better to cut your losses now while you still have cash in the bank. Some rumors I've heard had ACA mgmt floating plans for an independent carrier *long* before the UAL fiasco. If that was indeed the case, you can bet they'll use *any* PR spin they can to claim that UAL forced them out.

Interestingly enough, I thought that if UAL liquidated, the big three express carriers had enough presence to continue as is. All they would need is some mainline size jets to fly the bigger markets and transcons and the res/operations infrastructure.

Also realize that a vast majority of SkyWest feed is for Delta, and very little of it is for United, and that ARW lost their AirTran routes. Until United sinks, I think SkyWest figured they could ride it out as long as they didn't lose money on UAL, and well, ARW doesn't serve the population centers that ACA did.

 

[Always deferred]

Keep in mind, those who wish ill will towards UAL or any other company are in the minority. Many of us have worked at or have family/friends who work at UAL. Those with sour attitudes exist at every airline and somehow all find their way to these forums. I can only speak for myself when I say that I am proud to be part of an airline that people enjoy flying on and proud to be part of a profession with such a distinguished if not rocky history, and I do my best to project that everyday. I wish no misfortune on anyone. Just show up, fly safely and professionally, and try to make the passengers come back again. The end.

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