Recalls and hiring are not only based on the economy. Even if furloughed pilots were recalled tomorrow the airline can only train maybe 100 pilots at month at most so it would take a year or longer just to recall pilots. This was already discussed in a thread. Since recalls are not likely to start before Summer it is reasonable to assume hiring will not begin until Summer 2003
Throttle Jockey isnt an expert ad you called him. He just did the math
It is possible that the majors may start to accept resumes or even re-engage the hiring process prior to all furloughs being retrained, but I rather think that is highly unlikely.
First of all, there are more than a handful of probationary pilots and poolies that would be called prior to restarting the hiring process. For example, I believe UAL poolies are given first rights on hiring (if I am incorrect please post).
Secondly, with the drastic perminent reduction in equipment due to accelerated aircraft retirement, I just don't think that things will move along that quickly.
Lastly, when the hiring does start again, it will most likely be highly selective, utilizing application windows and other techniques to limit the number of potential applicants. It is going to be very difficult to make it to the show, regardless of attrition levels.
I am still holding out that it will happen for me - i'll see you there!