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Airtran-Midwest getting closer to a deal?

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Citrusflyer

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Nov 25, 2001
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It's no pie in the sky: AirTran-Midwest merger talk looks serious

Goldman Sachs on board as financial adviser

December 28, 2006
BY MARY WISNIEWSKI Business Reporter
Midwest Air Group's hiring of Goldman Sachs as its financial adviser shows that the low-cost Milwaukee airline is seriously considering a $290 million merger proposal from AirTran Holdings, and may try to increase it. "I wouldn't be surprised if they're trying to up the offer," said Marisa Thompson, an AirTran specialist at Morningstar.
She said Midwest will likely use the adviser to get as much value out of the offer as possible without giving away too much proprietary information. "It's going to be a song and dance," said Thompson.
Earlier this month, Midwest refused an $11.25 per share offer from Orlando, Fla.-based AirTran. Midwest's share price has soared since the offer became public Dec. 13, with Midwest closing Wednesday at $11.88.
Midwest, which has increased its marketing in the Chicago area, said the company wants to stay independent.
AirTran made its offer public in the hope of swaying Midwest shareholders. The high-pressure courtship has continued, with AirTran announcing last week that its labor unions support the deal.
"We have said publicly that we would increase the offer if they could demonstrate additional value," said AirTran spokesman Tad Hutcheson. "We want them to say yes. It would make two great airlines even better."
A Midwest spokeswoman said hiring Goldman Sachs gives the airline a "number of options to consider" in its financial strategy and provides counseling on a number of fronts, including the AirTran offer.
"Our current position is that the offer is inadequate," said spokeswoman Carol Skornicka. "We haven't heard anything since then."
"Goldman Sachs will help us with another offer if it should come forward, but so far there hasn't been anything," said Skornicka.

Last week, Midwest said it had reached an agreement with SkyWest Airlines to operate 50-seat regional jet service beginning in April. SkyWest will operate between 15 and 25 planes for Midwest, adding new destinations and increasing frequency of existing routes.
Brian Nelson, who covers Midwest for Morningstar, said Midwest wants to analyze its stand-alone plan as well as its potential for a merger.
"We do think this deal is going to get done," Nelson said. "This is going to be a great deal for Midwest."
The combined companies would be worth $3 billion, and grow to $3.5 billion over the next couple of years, according to AirTran.
Midwest's share value has risen nearly 31 percent since AirTran announced the merger offer and nearly 148 percent in the last year
 
ChuckYogurt/Chuckie/Einstein/Lizard/TexasCrotchrot/Snake seems to have been struck speechless. . . .


.
 
What are they waiting for?

If AirTran wants this I don't understand why they are waiting to make an offer that has a chance to succeed. They are giving MEH time to put defenses in place and put up roadblocks like the 50-seat subcontract. If they give MEH enough time they might engineer some kind of private buyout or order Airbuses or more MD-80's or something to drive up the stock and minimize MEH's value to AirTran. Also, if MEH has a profitable Q4 and year end profit it will indicate the start of a trend (3 consecutive quarters) and may drive up the stock price and support the MEH argument that they are better off alone. When AirTran went public with the offer and the Head Honchos came to Milwaukeee they had MEH management on the defensive and off balance; they had momentum. They are losing the element of surprise. As any good boxer knows; when you got 'em on the ropes finish 'em off; you may not get another chance. Time to land the knockout punch or leave the ring in defeat.
 
There is no "element of surprise" in a takeover of a company from the state of Wisconsin....too many regulations preventing that sort of thing are in place there.

Joe and Bob wont pay more for something than what it's worth (i.e. MDW gates) so if Midwest does some irrational things to move the price higher they'll probably bail and wait to see how Midwest pays for the new toys all by themselves (I highly doubt the revenue stream is enough to support new Airbus). Read: Vultures waiting for the cow to die. Plus, their stock is currently at a high because of the profit takers from the merger proposal. If it falls through then the stock will cycle back to it's more realistic value. From where I sit it's a good thing that they haven't made a quick counter proposal. GS will most likely find the best price that both parties are willing to settle for and the deal will be done.

As for Chuck/Einstein.....he's probably huddled wet and naked shivering in the back of his closet.
 
so what are this weeks winning lotto numbers citrus?
 
Just a question for the AirTran guys:

1) What is the crew/plane ratio? I'm trying to find out how long upgrade would be if I get on in 07, and this Midex deal is done.

2) With the relatively small size (only 380 or so pilots) in Midex, how bad would that do to the junior or new hire airTran FO that hopes a quick upgrade? (less than 4 years)

Curious mind wants to know...
 
As for Chuck/Einstein.....he's probably huddled wet and naked shivering in the back of his closet.

Maybe you guys can have a welcome "blanket party" for 400ahole/chuck/lawman/einstein/texas crotch rot!
Of course, I wouldn't piss on him if he was on fire!

737
 
with only one net gain in aircraft next year if the deal passes, and at least one year to upgrade. thats with a full staple. anything else will delay upgrage even longer
 
with only one net gain in aircraft next year if the deal passes, and at least one year to upgrade. thats with a full staple. anything else will delay upgrage even longer

I thought airTran is getting like 15 737 in 2008? Is that a firm order or just an option?

Even if a straight staple (highly unlikely), a more systematic integration would put pretty much most (~70%) of Midex's FO above any junior (<2 yr AirTran FO). Would you guys agree with that?

Just trying to gauge the growth at AirTran if this deal goes thru, and seems like it just wait for the "Price is right"..
 

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