9-11 is over! Now hear this!

[DesertFalcon]

Well, Fellow Aviators, things should start to improve now!

Now, that we have made it thru 9-11, without a catastrophe, we should see a rise in passenger confidence. I believe we will also see a better stock market.

The only unknown is the War; It could slow the Airline recovery should things go bad.

I am optimistic.... Look for 2003 to be a much better year for us Professional Aviators.

Good Luck.

DesertFalcon1

 

[328dude]

If I recall correctly, Didn't the airlines suffered greatly because of fuel prices during the Gulf War. If we do go to war against Irag and other harboring nations, it will probebly put a huge dent in airlines restructuring tactics in respect to fuel. Anybody know what a barrel cost back then in the Gulf War compared to today's prices.

Just my 2 cents

 

[NEDude]

Gulf War Prices

Actually oil prices dropped during the gulf war. They went up after Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 2000, and remained high until the war started. However shortly after they was began and it was clear the U.S. and the allies were going to win, the price per barrel dropped significantly, under $20. Gas prices however remained high which sparked accusations of price fixing among the major oil companies.

 

[cessna_driver2]

Wouldn't the build up to war cause a big boom for the airlines. Transporting troops and all.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[328dude]

Cessna, what your referring to is the CRAF (Civil Reserve Air Fleet). The rate paid to the carriers when they fly for the CRAF may vary. In the CRAF operations serving Desert Storm it was 1.75 times the seat mile or cargo mile rate. A fee for a 400 seat passenger aircraft, at six cents per seat mile, flying 7,500 miles, times 1.75 would be 315,000.

Airlines that participate in the CRAF usually sign a contract with the military on a yearly basis and if we were to go to war today, the rates would be negotiated.

Each participating air carrier give's the military a list of available aircraft each year that is available for the CRAF. On the flip side to this is that carriers that are CRAF get preferential treatment when applying for non defense government business.

But yes, it would help the airlines out to an extent. Might as well use the aircraft for CRAF purposes, specially if your passenger loads are down.

The last list I have for airlines that participate include cargo airlines as well. (2001)

Just a few, not all of them
Delta 21 A/c
Continental 10
American Trans Air 44
Northwest 70
Fed Ex 68
American Airlines 93
Southwest Airlines 39
United 41
Alaska Airlines 19

This is just a few

 

[Salty Dog]

My personal sense is that out of a 5 trillion dollar economy, the military's relatively measley 310 billion isn't going to mean as much to me or any other aspiring airliner as getting those fat cats from the fortune 500 and all their bureaucratic minions back on the planes.

As long as the painfully slow yet incremental improvements in airport convenience and basic passenger flow continue, the tide of traffic to the fractionals should at least partially flow back to the mainlines.

I think the discussions on passenger service, management and operations, and hub & spoke refinements will be more relevant than any boom or bust from war-induced travel. He11, there's only just over a million people left in the military anyway.

I'll be job hunting in a year and am quite confident that things will be looking much better by then.

Best of luck to all.

- NaCl Mutt

 

[HA25]

WAR = BAD

Take it from me as a former commodities student, a war with Iraq WILL hurt the airlines and skyrocket fuel costs.

Mark my words.

 

[1900laker]

Quote:
WAR = BAD
Take it from me as a former commodities student, a war with Iraq WILL hurt the airlines and skyrocket fuel costs.

Mark my words.


__________________

Well, maybe that might be the catylyst that finally convinces the majority that the Alaska reserves need to be drilled. Also, from your commodoties study, did they mention anything about the black gold still under ground in Texas, Oklahoma, etc.

Trust me, when the tree huggers in California are in the dark again, and have to drink their Starbuck mocha-frappa-crapachinos at room temperature, maybe then we will stop being so dependent on foreign oil.

Besides the war would be too short to have a long term impact. Remember 91. 17 days in the air and 3 on the ground, and their boys were surrendering to news reporters and unmanned aerial drones.

 

[jetexas]

Why not just buy oil from Russia since they are more western friendly anyway? We really don't need the Middle East anyway with Alaska, Texas, Venezuela, Russia, etc.

 

[FamilyMan]

OK let’s look at this from a long term perspective.

Initially the public may be hesitant about flying if we have a new gulf war, but this is only a short term effect. Historically, wars have helped boost weak economies.

After Saddam’s a$$ is removed from power, the Iraq oil fields will come on-line. Remember the embargo pulled them off the world market. It’s a simple matter of supply vs. demand. Oil supply will increase, prices will drop. Ever wonder why Saudi Arabia and Russia are so opposed to us going into Iraq (even though they hate Iraq), they will loose a lot of money when oil prices drop.

Cheap oil will help return the airlines to profitable. The last thing we need is another airline failing.

Let’s get Saddam out of Iraq and put Exxon in!!!

FamilyMan