United and the upcoming strike...

[Hercflyer]

If United goes on strike next Saturday due to the Mechanic's labor issues, and United closes its doors to the tune of 40 mil a day...What are some of the possibilities we may see? If Chapter 11 is filed and United tries to reorganize under that umbrella, all LOA's are mute...correct? ACA and Skywest have been making tons of dollars and I can not see them standing by while United takes a timeout to revamp their internal issues...Air Wiskey is wholey owned correct? ACA for one has opened a partnership with Delta out of Boston and New York and are starting up their charter operations, so they would be running at a 50% capacity. I have no clue as to what Skywest's plans are, but would be curious to hear about them. As far as ACA goes, they fly all of United's regional routes East of Chicago. I am thinking that is a fairly lucrative market. Is there anything out there stopping someone like Delta from entering into an aggreement with ACA and taking their Dulles and Chicago hubs. Effectively, United would be left with no commuter system East of O'Hare, and Delta would have ACA's Chicago, Dulles, New York, and Boston operations.

 

[328Pilot]

I don't remember the exact numbers, but if ACA shut down its UAX division because of a strike, it would be running at closer to a 30% capacity. I'm also not sure that Delta would even WANT to move into Chicago. I believe they have all those same markets pretty well covered out of CVG.

 

[Marko Ramius]

The strike would actually begin at 12:01 a.m. on Wedneday morning not on Saturday. That said, I don't think either side is all that interested in going there, despite outward appearances. AFAIK, the IAM hasn't even opened strike centers or any of the other things you do when preparing for a strike. It's all about fighting the good fight and keeping AMFA out, not to mention the horrendous linkage language in the PEB. Creighton, is not a confrontational CEO, and he knows that a bancruptcy will only discredit his attempts to gain employee consensus and trust as well as further discredit UAL's management team to Wall Street. He's got his bases covered in case he is forced to declare bancruptcy, but I don't think he wants to do it. He and the IAM have told Bush to stay out of it, and this time he has so far.

As far as ACA/ZW/SKYW goes, I think much of what's going to happen has been decided behind the scenes. I think the company has realized that they are going to have to make some sort of deal with ALPA on the minimum fleet size/SJ grievance and are making some movements behind the scenes to do so. As has been the case for the last several years ACA is likely going to be the big winner of the UA express carriers. They may be looking to hire up to 350 pilots which is a big sign. Skywest has cancelled a couple of classes, is considering that j4j deal with UsAirways, and seems to be inching on a bit right now. Air Wis has pilots on furlough, no plans to hire before the fall, and there are rumours that they may be moving their ops out west. Since ACA has the most RJ's out of the three, maybe UA is thinking that with limited RJ assets it's best for Air Wis and Skywest to combine forces out West and have ACA handle the bulk of ORD and IAD. ACA could even do some tag end stuff through DEN if need be if additional SJ lift is needed. For example there's no reason ACA couldn't do a trip that went through cities like ORD-FAR-DEN-MEM-DEN-FSD-ORD(obviously not in one day!). I have a feeling that if UA gets through the current IAM mess that they are going to partially rethink some of the route paredowns we did out west.

If UAL does decalare bancruptcy, it will likely be reorginization not liquidation, and the express carriers will likely continue to fly, possibly even doing some work on mainline routes(dicey subject, but it isn't farfectched if ALPA and AFA honor the IAM's picket line). With reorginization likely being the order of the day, I think companies like ACA, Skywest, and Air Wis would be chomping at the bit to get more routes and revenues from the "new United," when management attempts to completely abrogate the scope clause. I would expect that other carriers would jump into the feeding frenzy as well, like Mesa, Trans States and Chautaqua. Worlds would be colliding and it would be the end of independant George. Interesting conjecture, but I still think that a settlement is a more likely than a strike at this point.

 

[Boz]

I agree with Marko, there is still a couple of days left and feel that the IAM are not going for the throat yet. An agreement will more than likely be hammered out in the 11th hour and UAL will continue to operate as norma. The signs of a strike are simply not present and a deal will will be cut. Just hang tight and hope that these parties get there stuff together to make it all work out.

I know I sound optomistic, but why be negative, its only going to make everyone more freaked out than they already are. So again, sit tight and wait I guess. Result will be made available shortly....