Pilot shortage!!

generaltso

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The people (and companies, schools) that talk about there being an airline pilot shortage in the next 10 years make me laugh. I don't think there will be a pilot shortage any time soon (if ever again).

IMHO, once pilot hiring starts up again at the majors it will be very competitive with lots of people applying. I don't think companies will change their minimums, but I think it is going to take a lot more to impress them.

But whenever I hear the word pilot shortage, or read it in an article, I feel sorry for the people who believe it. That is like saying that the NBA is going to have a player shortage!!
 

bobbysamd

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Pilot "shortage"

Pilot shortage is as old as the Wright Brothers. Think about it. The Wright Flyer needed only one pilot and two were available!

There has never been a pilot shortage, nor is there currently is a pilot shortage, nor will there ever be a pilot shortage. Pilot shortage is a myth perpetrated and perpetuated, e.g., by Kit Darby and his FAPA ilk, descendants and lieutenants.

It is pathetic about how so many qualified pilots are available for every pilot job. Especially now, with only a recovering economy and furloughs.

However, just because there is an abundance of pilots doesn't mean that one should not try. You need luck and persistance to get hired. Being young is also a plus for a new pilot.

Good luck to all who want to build a flying career. It can be done.

PS-once again, for a good laugh, look at the TAB Express ad in the March Flying magazine.
 
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1900cpt

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I definitely agree with bobbysamd....there is no shortage or will be for a long time. The people that advertise this or claim this do so in the hopes of sucking in people to do their "programs".

I cant really think of anytime recently that there were too many pilot positions and not enough applicants. It has been the opposite....I bet many people on the board can attest to this. When did United, Delta, or any other major come bangin' down your door or call right back after appling because there was such a shortage?????

Thats what I thought.

1900cpt
 

CAK@4000

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Amen Guys,

Pilot Shortages have always been a myth, and always will be!
 

El Duderino

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What I remember being told was that "over 50% of the Major Airline Pilots right now(this was told to me back in '98) were over the age of 50." Meaning that half of these pilots would take an early retirement at the age of 55, and the rest would be required to retire by regulation. Then I was told "the baby boomers will have moved on and the next ten years will be a great time to get on with the majors." I beleived it, it makes sense, and only now have I realized how truly difficult it is to get a good job. There are a lot of bad jobs out there. After reading this post, and after trying to get a job, and realizing how competitive you must be to make it, I now know that that was a line, which came from the mouth of the owner of my flight school. I hope y'all understand that I am not hoping for the Senior Captains to move on, I actually beleive it is unfair for the FAA to regulate this. But what do I know.
Dude
 

BigFlyr

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There are indeed "Pilot Shortages" out there...(Southeast Asia for example). Just look at the ads in the "crew leasing" sections of your aviation job publications... There are companies that seek highly trained and qualified pilots of usually "heavy" stuff or latest generation Boeing or Airbus and by "qualified" they mean Type Rated with at least 500hrs in type. There's your pilot shortage!!! :rolleyes:
 

ksu_aviator

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Pilot Shortage should have been defined as rapid advancement. Truely that is what happened. Major Airlines had all those retirees and replaced them with regional and corporate pilots, who where replaced with charter and instructor pilots who where replaced with up and coming students. Nobody was ever short of pilots, they just hired at a very rapid rate. It may be possible that we see this rapid movement again after all of the Majors recall again. I figure that those that where reaching retirement age so quickly before 9/11 are still aging and still retiring. As they are replaced with furloughed pilots and schedules come back to speed, airlines MAY see a need to hire again.
 

Riddy

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There has never been a pilot shortage, nor is there currently is a pilot shortage, nor will there ever be a pilot shortage. Pilot shortage is a myth perpetrated and perpetuated, e.g., by Kit Darby and his FAPA ilk, descendants and lieutenants.

Very true, I'm just wonder how long it will be before Kit Darby closes down and keep the membership fees, like with FAPA, and start a new company when hiring resumes.
 

bobbysamd

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FAPA

I believe Kit did start up another pilot career "service."

Kit Darby and his mentor, Lou Smith, are a real button-pusher for me. Lou Smith founded FAPA, ostensibly to serve as a bridge service for separating military pilots who wanted to go to the airlines. In the mid to late 80s, FAPA was in trouble financially. So, guys 'n gals, guess what? News came out about an impending pilot shortage. Predictions were that forty-thousand new pilots would be needed over the next ten years. And guess who was the source of that news? You guessed it! FAPA started advertising its services in the general-interest pilot magazines. All of a sudden, previously-occult information about airline recruiting and hiring was now available to the masses. FAPA membership soared, and the organization was saved. All under the leadership of Smith's lieutenant, Kit.

The he11 of it was that FAPA's literature was soooo seductive. It made a career with the majors appear to be within the grasp of any Joe Blow private pilot. I have no idea or evidence to back this, but I have no doubt in my mind that FAPA's propaganda caused the injection of millions of dollars of revenue into the flight training industry.

To try to be fair about FAPA's services, it did sell and promote a few helpful publications, such as Sweaty Palms and Airline Pilot Interviews by Irv Jasinski. I bought both books and they helped me. Mr. Jasinski's book was extremely valuable. I used his interview prep service for a job I wanted badly and I got the job. Then, I was out of work and saw Mr. Jasinski at some FAPA career seminar. I introduced myself. He remembered me and spent some time to speak with me about my concerns. I give Mr. Jasinski and his book the highest recommendation.

Once again, there is NO pilot shortage! But that does not mean you can't be hired. You just have to work at it.
 

kilomike

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Amen, brothers. There never was and never will be a pilot shortage. It is sad to see how many people who bought into the lies of FAPA, etc.

However, if more people enjoyed general aviation flying, tourism would be increased by more day trips to places around the country, more people would enjoy flying for pleasure...a good thing and good for the economy. Now why could the flight schools spent more time promoting and encouraging flying for pleasure and not a career? I know many people who would have learned to fly earlier in their lives had this been promoted more.

Shame on you flight schools etc, for promoting an airline pilot shortage and getting too many people to chase an often elusive dream. It sure would have been far better to encourage more Private Pilots and more already licensed pilots to go for the IFR rating (improve safety!!).

And not to mention those stupid "programs" where people buy time on flights on which paying passengers are on board??!! As a paying passenger I am OUTRAGED that this kind of thing can happen!! I for one would NOT fly on an "airline" that makes its FOs pay for that time!! I EXPECT my money to get into the hands of employees not some greedy jerk who is taking advantage of us ALL, not just pilots. Taking advantage of the PASSENGER TOO!! Gulfstream is an "airline" I will NEVER buy a ticket on--I'll WALK before I go on that stupid imitation airline.

Hey flight schools--promote private aviation, not the lure of an often elusive dream!!!! Personal flying is terrific and I would not change the number of schools--let's change the emphasis!!

Pretty pathetic if a PASSENGER has more experience (flight time) than the flight crew!! Sad scenario if you ask me.
 

Snakum

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"The Wright Flyer needed only one pilot and two were available!"

ROFLMAO! :D

I have just about given up on anything other than small-time corporate or local 135. I started training again two years ago and after reading thousands or posts from BobbysAMD and others I came to better understand the nature of the industry and the people who run it. At my age and with a less than perfect record of public conduct :rolleyes: I have decided that I LOVE Navajos, King Airs, and old CE-500s :D.

Pilot shortage ....... JESUS H !!!!!!!!!

Minh
 

pilotyip

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Experience shortage

There may have never been a pilot shortage, but there certainly was a shortage of pilots with the potential to rapidly upgrade. In 2000 we were upgrading pilots to DA-20 Captain after three months on line as an F/O, who three years earlier would not have meet our DA-20 F/O hiring minimums. The regionals were hiring 500 hr pilots with under 100 MEL, true there were always people looking for pilots jobs, but we got real deep in the experience barrel. Air Inc provides an excellent forum, about 1/3 of our pilots come from the Air Inc. system because we get to see the guys and talk to them before we bring them in for the interview. I wish they would have had something like this in the 1980's when I was "between jobs". Pilots who avoid using thier services are missing some great opportunities to sell themselves and find out what is going on in the market. Kit Darby does a great job.
 

FLYnMONKEYS

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Pilot shortage.......ha! The only people who use the term pilot shortage are flight school scumbags who are trying to get your money. If there is such a shortage why are they in the flight school business? You can still make it to the majors without a shortage, be patient, keep your nose clean, and do it right.

I have a "pilot shortage" it's my bank account.......furloughed.
 

FLYnMONKEYS

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For anyone who cares.....these are the total retirements at AA for the next 14 years.....out of 14371 pilots.....not much of a shortage. For the mentally challenged add the AA and TW columns together to get that years total.



AA TW
2002 130 96
2003 147 90
2004 208 59
2005 216 70
2006 297 64
2007 304 71
2008 441 59
2009 442 54
2010 375 43
2011 307 43
2012 297 39
2013 358 46
2014 441 46
2015 518 59
 

publisher

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Everyone

That rare case when everthing above is correct and accurate.

Technically, no shortage now or before or ahead.

What people talk about is level of experience for given job. There is not much doubt that in 2000, you did not have to have significant experience to land a pilot job with a carrier.

It is the ebb and flow of experience level but not a shortage. Did the flight schools start that, no. Did they promote it, yes.

To call these people scumbags is totally uncalled for and reflects an unprofessionalism becoming entirely too common.

Yesterday when I was talking to two recruiters, the Southwest theme came up again. We hire the person not the hours. If there is a shortage, it is in the quality of individuals with some class and a good attitude about their profession, not pilots.
 

FLYnMONKEYS

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Re: Everyone

publisher said:
To call these people scumbags is totally uncalled for and reflects an unprofessionalism becoming entirely too common.

Yesterday when I was talking to two recruiters, the Southwest theme came up again. We hire the person not the hours. If there is a shortage, it is in the quality of individuals with some class and a good attitude about their profession, not pilots.


OK so now I'm unprofessional for calling a spade a spade. Any one who has spent any time in this industry knows there are plenty of unscrupulous operators, especially in training. Yes there are SCUMBAGS in aviation "Buttercup", open your eyes and don't step in the poo!

I guess my professionalism and character are good enough for that other Dallas carrier.
 

bobbysamd

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Pilot (and experience) "shortage"

Fair comments.

I can see where school recruiters could fall into the "scumbag" category. Many promise the moon about what their school will do for you, especially regarding placement and airline interview connections. They become scumbags when they do not, cannot or fail to deliver on their promises.

This seems to be true with vocational schools generally. My paralegal school advertised a 98% placement rate. After working for three commercial flight schools, I took that with a grain of salt. I was right. The school offered me little help in finding a job after I graduated. Truth is, I found my first job on my own.

Now, if they're just advertising their schools and say their schools offer the best airline-oriented training anywhere, that's just salesmanship and hype. In that case, the buyer must beware.

During the late 80s hiring boom, experience requirements ebbed and flowed. I believe that American Eagle and/or its subsidiaries such as Wings West and Nashville Eagle were advertising 3000 total and 1000 to 2000 of multi. Then, in about 1988, they dropped those requirements to 1500 total-500 multi. Somehow, at least in my mind, that requirement has become a benchmark because so many organizations have used it. The truth is, the quality of the applicant pool drives requirements. FAPA was truthful about one thing in its airline profiles; it would write about the published requirements but would add the actual hour totals at which airlines were interviewing.

Once again, there is no pilot shortage. Just don't give up on trying unless you have to.
 
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Riddy

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Yesterday when I was talking to two recruiters, the Southwest theme came up again. We hire the person not the hours. If there is a shortage, it is in the quality of individuals with some class and a good attitude about their profession, not pilots.

So why does SWA, Jetblow, FEDX all want 1000 PIC MINIMUM in large turbine aircraft. I have over 7500 hours with over 3500 in 727's as FE, FO, and PIC, but only 800 as PIC and they don't even want to know my name. Quantity over quality. It's hard to keep a positive attitude when you aren't qualified to apply for a startup when you have 12 years of commercial experience.
 

jaybird

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ROTFLMAO

Rolling On The Floor Laughing My Ass Off
 
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