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Anyone know of a list of retirements by year @ different airlines Yeah 65 just add 5

jonjuan

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I would add that you can't use the old statistics for guys going early for medical issues.

While you would think that going early for medical reasons would be fairly cut and dried, the reality is that it isn't.

Back in the day, say 1999, lets use the example of a 57 YO dude (or dudette). They had a medical issue that grounds them. They have 1800 hours of sick time saved up, plus LTD. They could easily coast to age 60 with practically no loss in pay, and still receive their full DB.

Even if they were younger, say 55, sick leave and LTD would probably take them to 58, then go to a medical retirement, with little or no penalty.

With those sets of financial circumstances, my guess is unless they had some kind of overriding personal desire to go back to work, they could just retire and be done with it. Depending on when they got hired and the nature of the DB plan, working extra may not even add to their accrued benefit.

Sure, they could try to get their medical back, but it was hardly the end of the world if they didn't, and so the effort expended was probably fairly modest. My guess is that's what accounted for rather large percentage of folks that didn't make it to 60.

These days, there is no DB plan to coast into, and as a result, people are far, far more aggressive in regaining their medicals. As a result, not only are the pilots who are working staying until 65, but a far larger percentage of those who would nominally have coasted off into the sunset, are coming back to work.

Nu
To counter that a bit, the stock market has been on a tear lately with the S and P up over 30% in 2013. I know quote a few gummers who were over weighted in stocks and after the last couple of years of out sized returns are now much closer to pulling the trigger on retirement.
 

doh

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And yet, all those people are focused on increasing their revenues as a training facility. I only linked them because of the retirement graph. They have a dog in the fight.
 

bafanguy

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And yet, all those people are focused on increasing their revenues as a training facility. I only linked them because of the retirement graph. They have a dog in the fight.
Yep, I sorta/kinda had the same feeling. I think the subject requires analysis by someone with absolutely no financial/political interest in seeing the findings go one way or another. This is practically impossible but the study you linked comes about as close as anything I've seen so far.

IIUC, the AABI represents lots of college av organizations ? If so, those facilities would be a bit more removed from profit motive than the strictly commercial enterprises ? The authors of the study are affiliated with universities (I don't know the financial arrangement of ERAU re profits).

Can't say I know that much about it but it's a pretty interesting subject...and seems to be relevant these days. It's a puzzle with many moving parts.
 
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Herk Bubba

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And here's to 2014, AA is hiring so now retiring pilots from the top while bringing in fresh blood on the bottom...


Projected Retirements for 2014 - 2034
(Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.)
Roster Data Updated on: 12/27/2013

Year Total
01/01/2014 - 12/31/2014 76
01/01/2015 - 12/31/2015 107
01/01/2016 - 12/31/2016 129
01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 182
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 292
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 411
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 535
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 580
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 650
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 696
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 715
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 719
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 710
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 609
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 529
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 488
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 432
01/01/2031 - 12/31/2031 445
01/01/2032 - 12/31/2032 393
01/01/2033 - 12/31/2033 368
01/01/2034 - 12/31/2034 252
Happy 2015....

Legacy AA / doesn't include legacy US


Projected Retirements for 2015 - 2035
(Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.)
Roster Data Updated on: 12/26/2014

Year Total
01/02/2015 - 12/31/2015 99
01/01/2016 - 12/31/2016 119
01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 167
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 282
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 388
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 528
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 576
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 649
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 692
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 717
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 731
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 710
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 617
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 537
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 498
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 447
01/01/2031 - 12/31/2031 464
01/01/2032 - 12/31/2032 416
01/01/2033 - 12/31/2033 392
01/01/2034 - 12/31/2034 289
01/01/2035 - 12/31/2035 212
 

bafanguy

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Herk,

Thanks for the info. Any way you can get the official USAir data too ?
 

nimtz

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?
To counter that a bit, the stock market has been on a tear lately with the S and P up over 30% in 2013. I know quote a few gummers who were over weighted in stocks and after the last couple of years of out sized returns are now much closer to pulling the trigger on retirement.
I have never seen this or A Fund payout percentage make a discernable difference. Most stay till 65. But remember they only needed two years to get back what those b@stards stole from them.:rolleyes:
 

Herk Bubba

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You're welcome!

Projected Retirements for 2016 - 2036 (Legacy AA only)
(Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.)
Roster Data Updated on: 1/5/2016

Year Total
01/10/2016 - 12/31/2016 114
01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 161
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 261
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 375
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 499
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 572
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 641
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 691
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 718
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 732
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 716
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 617
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 546
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 506
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 456
01/01/2031 - 12/31/2031 472
01/01/2032 - 12/31/2032 431
01/01/2033 - 12/31/2033 403
01/01/2034 - 12/31/2034 301
01/01/2035 - 12/31/2035 223
01/01/2036 - 12/31/2036 154
 
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bafanguy

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Annnnd, thanks again, Herk ! :)

Any forecast when the combined data might appear ?
 
Last edited:

bafanguy

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Herk,

As a P.S., are all the AA furloughs back onboard yet ? If not, do you know how many are still bypassing recall ?

And...how much non-flow street hiring is happening ?

Thanks again.
 

Freebrd

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Herk Bubba related to SWA Booba, I mean c'mon already, can't be a coincidence...
 

Herk Bubba

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Annnnd, thanks again, Herk ! :)

Any forecast when the combined data might appear ?
Nope.... No idea.

Re: furloughs... Just under 900 deferred recall / recall rights expire in May 2016. No idea how many will come back - guesstimates about 10-15% seem common.

Re: OTS non flow / no idea... Saw some info graphics recently that about 50% are flows... But really I dunno.

See you in 2017.
 

bafanguy

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Herk,

Thanks. You're a gentleman and a scholar !!
 

bafanguy

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Herk Bubba,

If you pop in for a look, would you happen to have the latest AA mandatory pilot retirement figures ?

Thanks.
 

Herk Bubba

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Herk Bubba,

If you pop in for a look, would you happen to have the latest AA mandatory pilot retirement figures ?

Thanks.
Projected Retirements for 2017 - 2037
(Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.)
Roster Data Updated on: 12/11/2017
YearTotal
12/13/2017 - 12/31/2017 201
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 528
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 637
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 772
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 840
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 861
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 957
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 932
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 951
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 908
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 770
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 676
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 637
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 557
01/01/2031 - 12/31/2031 572
01/01/2032 - 12/31/2032 499
01/01/2033 - 12/31/2033 475
01/01/2034 - 12/31/2034 410
01/01/2035 - 12/31/2035 341
01/01/2036 - 12/31/2036 277
01/01/2037 - 12/31/2037 220
 

Herk Bubba

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AA is retiring -1- pilot every -24- hours. 2 per day for the next decade.

And... set to hire 1400 for CY2020

blistering movement....

Projected Retirements for 2020 - 2040
(Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.)

Roster Data Updated on: 1/27/2020

Year Total
01/29/2020 - 12/31/2020 654
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 781
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 820
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 921
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 915
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 945
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 906
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 773
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 689
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 646
01/01/2030 - 12/31/2030 568
01/01/2031 - 12/31/2031 583
01/01/2032 - 12/31/2032 522
01/01/2033 - 12/31/2033 496
01/01/2034 - 12/31/2034 431
01/01/2035 - 12/31/2035 389
01/01/2036 - 12/31/2036 302
01/01/2037 - 12/31/2037 253
01/01/2038 - 12/31/2038 262
01/01/2039 - 12/31/2039 246
01/01/2040 - 12/31/2040 248
 
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